Rising price with declining volume in the futures contract, the break above 11300 was on very poor volume.
One thing is that today is a Friday in August. Not known for high volume. Plus the market has obviously had a run the last few days and we're going into a weekend. I was surprised a bit to find the market closing near it's highs. But the major bad news for now has disappeared, thus the rally. Lebanon war is over for now at least, crude has backed off - no hurricanes yet, and inflation seems to be in check. No other major bad news. Thus the rally.
I'm short 10 YMs going into this weekend (been scaling in and out in the past few days but basically I've been "pissing against the wind" like Volente_00 described his move on another thread and I'm down about 1% of my porfolio; I'll probably cut it at around 2-2.5%). My reasoning was threefold - low volume on YM, what I perceived as a bearish rising wedge, and the second gap on Wed. My concern, on the other hand, is that the NYSE volume isn't all that bad considering we're in August. Also, I was taken a bit aback by the bullish move at the end of today, though considering the options expiry, it wasn't all too unexpected. Anyways, the longer we don't revisit the gap, the more bullish this thing becomes so I'm not very pleased about my position, but I've to take it as a part of doing this business.
Looks like last week was more options related than bullish fundamental buying. I mean the government pretty much shot its wad 2-3 years ago with deficient spend out the wazoo, federal reserve handing out free cash due to home equity cash outs. So what gets things moving now? Joe consumers big savings account hahaha. Never fear the market can rise overnight with futures buying for little to nothing for cost. Then the cash market can gap open as market specialists get to market up their products because the futures are up, its like free money. Todays volume in the index futures is extremely light.
5Pillars Registered: May 2006 Posts: 534 08-21-06 04:45 PM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from myminitrading: This rally off 10800 has been on declining volume, but if you look at the cash index the squirt last week was on consecutive days of rising volume. That was mainly due to the options expiration on equities is my guess. Its conflicting data thats for sure, just like this entire market for the last three years, gold and the US dollar both rising and falling together. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall volume is somewhat important.....but the key question was, "what was the DELTA of the Dow mini during the period you state"? Lite volume can have just as much price movement as heavy volume.....the imbalance of the volume is the measurement necessary to observe during these periods.....the hints were there for all of last week. Edit/Delete ⢠Quote ⢠Complain
Update: I had a great week scaling in and out of my short; didn't initiate any long positions until Wed. afternoon (fading the new lows after 3 PM) and even then I've been scalping on the long and staying longer on the short. I'm carrying only 4 YM shorts initiated today before the system went down going into this weekend, looking for a continuation of last week's bearish/neutral sentiment, but I'm out as soon as there's a trend reversal (looking at the downtrend on the 60 min chart closely).