Discussion in 'Trading' started by SWINGTRADER77, Nov 14, 2008.
Why did the Dow shoot agressively down in the last 20 mins or so of trading ? ( fri 14th nov)
1) A government official attempted to "calm" the market at that time.
2) Nobody wants to be "long" over the weekend.
3) Institutional investors are "lightening up" for the Holidays.
4) Somebody "knows" something that the rest of us don't know.
because those who bought at top of yesterday and top of today realized that they have a losing position. So they were convinced sellers as soon as price went close to their breakeven.
The same holds true for those who shorted the market yesterday and the day before at NDX 1177 and down.
That is the reasoning we used in RFT's blog to buy the bottom of today (NDX 1180), and sell at the top of today (NDX 1230 to 1235)
Since price behaved the way we analyzed it, our analysis must be right!
Gravitational pull of moon wasn't as strong.
Its not the 'Why' but the 'How' you are dealing with in intraday trading.
There were 4 downmoves into the YM close (4pm): from 15.16 in sequence - 136, 200, 120 and 162 points down, separated of course by 3 reversals (upmoves). Lets deal with the last downmove. Starting at 15.47.40 and only 3 seconds on, 'sell' signals, in my case, on a 2 signal primary system. I get both signals together on this occasion. Enter 'sell' instantly. Price stays BELOW gyrational top and 'Hold short' is indicated. After a jigging pattern for over 5 minutes price is sliding. Follow price very closely. Do not exit on any price gain targets. There is no buy signal. Buy signal comes at 15.59.40, second buy signal at 15.59.43. Most of the downmove is captured.
Therefore your answer is in the metrics of the market. You devise or adopt a sound methodology to exploit the intraday offering of YM (or whatever market you play or want to play).
Why did it rally 552 points in a few hours on Thursday????
I note one error in my previous post on this thread. The last downmove (15.47-15.59 Fri Nov 14) was not 162 but 252 points down.
I count the difference on Thursday (Nov 13) as 662 points up on YM, 8202-8864, 14.06-15.59. This was 6 upmoves separated by 5 reversals (downmoves). If however you count from that days low, 7945 at 13.00, it was 919 points up.
I dont care what it "did"- I want to know what it "do."
Everything is easy with hindsight.
Just as I dont need to know last week winning lottery numbers
Seems silly spouting off about the past
Separate names with a comma.