Dow Jones 13,000

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by gharghur2, Feb 18, 2006.

  1. It seemed like old times this week watching the cyclical DOW make new highs for the bull market with the TRANsports, as the three other main indices: NAZ/NDX/SPX lagged behind. At first, when the DOW was only rising and trying to lead the market, I discounted its efforts. It had tried and failed in this type of leadership many times. The growth stocks of the NAZ/NDX lead this market.

    Can cyclicals lead a bull market? In the beginning of an economic expansion, yes, as they are the first to be bought. Can they lead this bull market? I think not, but they can surely get it started again, like giving it a second wind. There are two technical factors to watch as the DOW moves higher. First, there is a rising two year trendline (see INDU weekly chart) currently at 11200, this is the bears first line of defense. Secondly, there are four overhead EW pivots points created during the bear market: DOW 11350, 11401, 11426 and 11750 (see INDU daily chart), this is the bears last line of defense. After these are eclipsed, expect massive capitulation by the Elliott Wave bears.

    Since there are no further reference points after 11750 is eclipsed we have to resort to fibonacci relationships...To summarize the fibonacci relationships: we have a fibonacci cluster between 13037 and 13045 which involves all the waves being analyzed; the primary waves and the major waves. This is the likely fibonacci target for the DOW during primary wave V: DOW JONES 13000!

    For the full analysis:
  2. The first obstacle was approached today
  3. Monthly close above 11000 very important imo. In feb it broke 11000 only to be rejected and close below that level by month end. I think March close is very important as it is also the close for the quarter which sets up the next 3 months.
  4. Agree!

    Actually, I see 11000 as support right now... with 11200 near term support
  5. It was a good week for the stock indices as the NAZ/NDX kicked off their respective uptrends to join the DOW/SPX and the ongoing uptrends of the TRAN/R2K/NYA. All the indices where up 2% and or more. The DOW was especially impressive as it broke through a long term rising wedge that had held it in check for two years. The SPX moved in tandem with the DOW and both posted their highest close in nearly five years. The DOW is getting very close to retracing its entire bear market correcion of 2000 - 2002.
  6. Maybe the markets will go fast up then need some time up there. Then up again. Just a feeling i get from looking at Dow Jones weekly
  7. Hi!

    On the weekly charts you may not even notice the short term correction. So I'd have to agree with you :)