Took a long which I scratched as it wasn't working. Unfortunately, it picked up a few mins later Closing the week down. March: +26 1st wk: +10, +1, +10, -10, +10, +10 = +31 2nd wk: +10, +6, -10, 0, -3, -10, +6, +10 = +9 3rd wk: +4, -12, -3, +10, +10 = +9 4th wk: -10, -3, -10, 0 = -23 February: +59 2nd wk: +10, +10, +11, +10 = +41 3rd wk: +6, +10, -7 = +9 4th wk: +10, +9, -10 = +9
I believe reading price action is key to trading successfully. So Iâve started to practice Of course this is with hindsight so itâs easier than live but at least it will get me thinking⦠Ytyâs YM action is posted. Arrow 1 Comments: Price broke out of the first 30min range. There is 1 down candle which doesnât get far and we can enter long on the open of this candle with our stop at the low of the breakout candle (2 candles ago). This is a tighter stop then a typical low of the swing (in this case of day) because I think that if it breaks the low of the breakout candle then the uptrend does not exist. Arrow 2 Comments: Looks like a 2nd chance to get in long, but am not sure if itâs a second chance or if this was the correct moment to get in long since we got confirmation of the uptrend. Do we go long both Arrow 1 and 2? Or only one of the two⦠Arrow 3 Comments: Price makes a top and we see 3 upper wicks on the candles. We can enter short on the breakdown of the support line showed with our stop at the swing high. We could also get in short 2 candles later at the first up candle shown. Arrow 4 Comments: Market finds support and prints several upthrusts. We could enter long on the breakout. Not quite short about the stop here. Perhaps at around 11055 is doable instead of the low, but possible due to risk/reward could be better to enter on the pullback. Of course still an issue with the stop ?!?!? Arrow 5 Comments: A short which would either not work or breakeven. Arrow 6 Comments: 3 candles ago we had a big down candle which tells us that the push up was fake. We get further confirmation from the candle prior to the one with the arrow. This candleâs wick shows us that there was an attempt to push back up but failed. So we short.
Arrow 1 looks like a good long and when it's not stopped out and that arrow 2 bar engulfs the previous bear bar, add to your long position if you're so inclined. I'm aggressive with entries. As soon as I see that shooting star before arrow 3, leaving a little double top, I'm all over it to the short side. Because that's a counter-trend trade (with a reversal signal), I watch how price acts at the MA line. I may take off half or all of my position expecting a bounce there. And it bounces there exactly, but fails to make a higher high, leaving a lower high, so I'm back in my short, or adding to the existing short if I held it. I'm guessing those are bollingers displayed, similar to the Keltners I use. Once the lower high was put in, I look to take profits at or just below the lower line. Since the original uptrend has been negated by a nearly full retracement of the move, I'd wait for confirmation before going long. In fact that shooting star with a lower high 2 bars from arrow 4, would have me short, but my stop would be more conservative than the top of that wick. I'd end up stopped out close to break even, and then once price pushed back up through the MA I would consider that a confirmed long, off a higher low. I don't care much for that short signal for a few reasons. 1) volume has dried up and a strong move is unlikely at that point in time, 2) you've had 2 pushes in an uptrend, so a 3rd push is very likely, 3) price is above a rising MA. However, shorting there is not high risk, because your stop can be quite tight. I like this short signal a lot. The 3rd push up was shallow and it sold off with conviction. Price tried to resume the uptrend off a higher low and failed, selling off on increasing volume. Your final arrow is an awesome short entry point IMHO. And again look how the lower line is a great place to take profits. I hope you're trading this stuff!
NoDoji, Unfortunately I didn't take any trades on Thursday but all the analysis and practice paid off on friday I made 43 YM points on a long off the bottom My analysis for Friday: Arrow 1: Market broke down through the opening range (shown by yellow lines). Then on a further breakdown there was a small pullback and the oppty to get in short at the line shown. I saw this but was afraid to take it as the stop would have to be around 25-30 pts (entry at around 11045, with stop at 11072 (top of 5 candles before arrow) and I want to take something a little tighter as I was afraid the market would recover. Arrow 2: TRADE: Market bottomed and we have a sign of reversal as the up bar at the bottom covers alot of the last down bar. Price then starts to move higher and I take the chance and get in long at 10945 with my stop at 10933 (5 candles before entry). I figured if my stop was hit then price would move further down. May have been too tight though.... Fortunately it moved up and I got out at 10988. I wanted to get out before the 11K mark and the 50% retracement. Arrow 3: Am wondering if this was a good short oppty or not... Volume was low and the show down may have just be resting before another push. Any thoughts? Thanks for your comments!
This morning I took a short which didn't pay off and was stopped out. I am wondering if my 1st short was a little aggressive but I don't think it was. Probably just bad luck ? I took a 2nd short which did work out and exited just before the hanging man formed. I figured out my target based on the fact that the Bollinger was below and that price was around the 50% retracement. Worked out well, but with the first trade, I make out even for the day. Still I am v happy about the trade. (you can see the entry/exit by the small arrows shown to the left of the candle) comments are welcome!
Your first trade was aggressive, but it was a lower high, so not THAT aggressive. I take those kinds of setups all the time because they often work. In fact, I shorted ES right after a pullback from 1193.25 left a shooting star behind this morning. I was aggressively short @ 1192.00, with a no mercy stop at 1193.50. The trade worked well. 1193.50 was the previous strong resistance level and so 1193.25 was a lower high in my warped mind. What I do differently than you is place a much tighter stop. The setup on your first trade looks good, but there is a previous resistance level that's itching to be tested and if the sellers sit on their hands and wait for the test, you'll get stopped out as buyers push for a breakout. Better to get stopped out very quickly than to take a bigger hit if price breaks back through the lower high. You entered on a red bar following doji bars at a lower high. I would've placed a stop just above the close of the previous bar, because that would mean the bar you entered on had retraced itself and started to become green, meaning likely test of that previous R level. Second trade looked great to me. Lower high after a failure to even hit resistance. You waited for the setup to get ripe (something I need to work on), and you targeted a previous support zone. Those kind of trades rarely fail.
Screwed up yesterday Didn't have any patience and basically imagined setups and trades were they didn't exist. Result: I dropped 30 pts on 2 trades. The stupid trades are shown in the attached. They occured very early in the day and I just really should have done neither and just waited for a clear setup. Potentials I should have done (of course I've marked this after the fact as I was away from my computer but its still a good learning exercise): Arrow 1: Price bounced off yty's high and pushed up. Someone could have entered long on the open of the bar and put a stop at the previous bar's low (11 pt stop) Arrow 2: Potential Long off the bounce off the 20-MA (possible tight stop of 5-6 pts which is below the MA and at the low of bar 7 bars ago) Arrow 3: Price looks like its had 3 pushs up and now its bounced off the bollinger. Its an aggressive trade but with a tight stop (7 points from the open of the arrow bar to the high). Arrow 4: Long, a few points above the bollinger and a few points above the pin 4 bars ago. (stop max 10 pts at the low of the pin) Arrow 5: Not a trade. Should not have marked it. The upthrust 2 bars ago looks bearish, however this is cancelled by the candle just before the arrow which has a long wick and could signify buyers. I guess even after the fact, one can make mistakes The above arrows are the types of trades I need to be taking. I guess you really need to be clued to the screen and learn to interpret the important candles that pop up while ingoring noise and non-events.
Arrow 3: I like the 3-push counter-trend trades because the risk is small and they go well often enough to make them worthwhile over time IMHO. Arrow 4: I like this long signal because it's a higher low off a failed downside breakout. The breakout shorts are trapped and any continued move up will have some short covering fuel to push for the top of the range at the least. Arrow 5: I consider this a tradeable short signal. Price has been in a range, and the downside breakout failed, and your arrow shows a failed breakout to the upside, confirmed by the fact that the hammer that follows is a red hammer, formed on low volume right off the moving average line (I'm guessing it was mainly chart traders trying to catch a trend continuation right off that line). Your arrow is a worthy short entry because you can place a stop just above the hammer's high and can target a move to the lower bollinger line. Seems like a decent R:R to me Wouldn't it be nice if we traded all these setups every day?