OK although I don't animate discussion group at the moment as long as I haven't finished all the examples to illustrate the cases. So I warn you that you risk to feel rather frustated for a few weeks before I make some animations. It is not the levels that are adjusted in fact because the levels are like a city plan: they don't change once they have been built (I mean calculated 24h in advance for next day's session). What changes is where the general drops the troop within the city : where market will open and where it will direct . <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=255714> For example looking at the charts today on hourly scale globally it says that it is rather bearish. Now if you read the guide it is said that the first projection is important for the impulse of the trend and you can see that it is bullish. So it will depend on where the market opens and if it retraces and crosses the bearish cross-pattern (where projection line goes below the blue line and so in negative territory) at 8641.87 we could have headed lower but the market just stopped two points above as he usually do - he is as extremist as he can be . Now if you interpret the chart today within the context of yesterday, once you become accustomed to interpret consolidation which is the most difficult things to master, you will be more aware that this negative bearish picture is to fool the short term players because as a metaphor if not for real they are used as panic buyers so that the market can resume the primary trend by retracing price and time that is to say it will go back to yesterday's chart. And if you look at yesterday's chart you had a resistance at 8727 on one chart and 8721 on another: we made 8727 yesterday and retest it this morning before we do the second one near 8721. Very often market make a double cycle because he follows a chart then the other but in clock or counterclock path. If you didn't understand I won't be surprised because this behavior is among the most complex: it happens when market makes a consolidation after a blow. I prefer also not to promise to make any post because I won't always have time to do it on time. When everything will be ready on the site I will make posts on planified days.
very interesting analysis. You don't think the Dow will see 9000? And if Dow 900 is possible, what do the charts say is the time frame? JJ
very interesting analysis. You don't think the Dow will see 9000? And if Dow 9000 is possible, what do the charts say is the time frame? JJ
We did retest 8740 and failed obviously. The close has a negative bias so the consolidation could continue and mark this day as an intermediate or even definitive top. As you can see even on optional expiration day the law of the model still works . I will put that day on illustration including globex.
you're charts are not giving the dow 9000 scenario clearly. It is clear that the Dow will test the 9000 level soon. Your charts got you up here, why not go the rest of the way? JJ
On higher scale I have even more than 9000 (I think it's 9250 or even more I must check) but I'm not trading higher scale that's why I said I don't care about prediction that would be only true or false in a few months. If he want to go there I should see it coming when it comes . If you even want the super target of my model in a few years (around 8 years) the ultimate projection is even 16000 as I said in another post http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=17673&perpage=6&pagenumber=2 although we must succeed to sustain above the dual point on the baseline which is around 10000 (I must look at it again if you are interested). Now I don't care as for short term trading especially intraday trading about such a target. I only look at very long term for the economy impact. Let's suppose that we even go to 16000 what people forget is that 16000 means nothing for real value when the value of money can be anything by "printing" it at will(it's a picture in modern system they don't print litteraly since they emits bonds which correspond to new currency emission but fondamentally it's the same thing it is just the packaging that has changed) and pumping nation's interests through it so that debts can only grow infinitly by pure mathematical law. The stock market just make people forget that for short term and at long term they will have to pay much more than the short term benefit since the burden get heavier and heavier through several generations until it is no more bearable and then the system wrecked all the great mass of the last "rich" people whereas the middle class is already shrinkened. Only the very super rich stay and get richer and richer. In the 30s an inquiry from Congress showed that 2 mens were chaving the wealth of 20% of whole america assets. Today how much these two mens (they didn't even want to give their name in the report so I won't affirm their name ) should have with time capitalisation ? Well the difference between today and the 30s is that Congress still dare to make enquiry on these men in the 30s whereas none of them should dare today do the same thing or even could do it technically due to the cost of enquiry, lobby and complexity of schemes employed with modern finance. The only only sure thing is that having 20% of welath in 30's implies that the power of these two men must have reached a level that should be astonishable seeing the level of stockmarket reached since the 30s.