Oh well ... I think we were right on May 30 to start a thread discussing the DOW crash with primary targets ALL hit ... Any more tips as where we could be heading from here ? P.S. I guess by now we all know what happens to NASDAQ when the DOW and especially the S&P crash
I'm posting this here because there was some Elliott Wave discussion earlier. The attached chart addresses whether we were, in August, in a "B" wave down. It was important because, if so, the coming bounce would be very bullish in feel ("C" waves are supposedly so). And here we are, in the bounce. Just some food for thought. Here is the chart. It is timestamped on my CPU August 17, 2002. I may have posted it on ET before, but I can't locate it. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=147940" width ="450" height = 360"></img> The significance of this is that, if we are in a "C" wave, that "ABC" is a correction pattern. "C" waves can go higher than the "A" wave high, and still be just a correction within the larger trend. <font size =1> I've edited this post as I realized that the chart was something I whipped up.</font>
some clarification on this chart is in order. The chart itself comes from Prechter, and represents his wave count. The red lines of waves B and C are my additions. These don't represent any earthshaking contribution on my part. Not only do they follow logically from a 5th wave, but we were in the throws of the "B" wave when I drew them in. The question was, was the bounce occuring at that time time a "C" wave? Since we've made lower lows in the interim, the answer must be "no." But, this bounce might be a "C," because it bears the 'bull' feel of "C" up waves. OK! <a href="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?postid=99207#post99207">Here's</a> the original stuff on this. Thanks, Baron.
God knows I don't want to start anything, but this is one reason why I don't understand the allegiance to EW. You won't "know" that it was a C wave or not until some point in the future. Since it doesn't meet all the requirements, it's not a C wave. But it might be a C wave because it "feels" like a C wave. So do you go long or short? If you don't know, why go through this exercise? --Db
All three major indexes are up above many of their moving averages[as of noon today. ]Was a good question at thread start. Tech [including IBM] tends have good ,strong uptrends in November.[10 years of charts + Yale Hirsch Almanac back to 1929] ------------------------------ ''Do not confuse a high probability with infallability''-Daryl Guppy,Australialn stock trader
Speaking out of EW ignorance (I am)... Exactly. Well, sometimes you wake up and say, "hmm, this feels like a "C" wave." And this sort of rings with other things you're looking at, and helps you make your decision. It's like cooking, I suppose. Of course, I'm speaking out of cooking ignorance. A spice cabinet. A little of this, a little of that, until it tastes right. Have you put too much of something on, or perhaps mixed Dill with Paprika, making everyone ill? You just don't know until after you've done it. Veal will be seasoned differently than beef. (Hey, is that why they call it a "bull" market?) Hopefully next time, you'll do better... One thing that strikes me about EW is that, whenever there is a discussion about a "C" wave, it is usually emphatic that it 'feels impulsive (that is, like a strong trend move),' though it is only a corrective move. "C" waves in bear markets are reputed to fool alot of people into thinking that a new bull has begun, often taking out previous bear-bounce-highs, only to disappoint. I bring it up because this bounce feels impulsive. Guess I really can't make a great case for "bothering..." But I still keep my eye on it. Another thing to consider is that market approaches tend to have seasons. They come and go in relevance and popularity.
I ask these questions out of genuine curiosity and because I really don't understand why EWs go through this. And because there seems to be an awful lot of "feels" in discussions of EW, and I've learned through hard experience that the market couldn't care less how or what I feel. There's nothing in these discussions that tells me what to do, though I don't blame whoever is doing the posting. The fault seems to lie, rather, with the nature of EW itself. In terms of a trading plan, I know that I have no idea whether we breakout to the upside or the downside, so I list what to look for in terms of sincere moves one way or the other, what to do if those moves turn out instead to be fakeouts, decide whether or not I want to trade a breakout to either side and if so how, whether or not I prefer to wait for a retracement to support/resistance, how I plan to address the resistance implied by the last two swing highs, etc. This skews the probabilities of success much more in my favor than "feeling" that this is this or that type of wave. Otherwise, my chances of success are very near 50/50. There is value in knowing that moves tend to peter out after X or Y number of legs, but that phenomenon was addressed long before Elliott. --Db
the market is all about "feels." how do they feel about this, that, or the other number, report, comment, volume, action, etc. etc. etc.