Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by bond_trad3r, Apr 2, 2009.
Hurray!! The bear market iz ova!
You'll laugh.... There's a higher chance than most people think that we'll be at 12000 before the end of the year. And I know how ridiculous I sound.
Yep bull market is back however can
PLEASE SHOW ME A CATALYST FOR THIS NEXT BULL MARKET.....
Im begging anyone to think how long these rallies and bull market can contain itself and move even higher, based on what I have no clue, printing trillions of dollars to spend our way out of this financial crisis is surely not the way.
12k sounds extremely ridiculous...
As I said many many months ago, the markets will find a bottom, but will trade sideways for many, many years. Anyone who thinks its off to the races is going to be proven extremely wrong. This market is far from recovering anytime soon.
P=Ms/Md. We are setting up for a perfect storm of money multiplier expansion (between PPIP and MTM relaxation), which will launch P upward. We are talking about a nominal bull market at worse (in real terms is anyone's guess). The fundamentals are aligning.
Furthermore, if we should have learned anything from the collapse, it is that earnings and stock prices are a function of performance at the margin. Earnings and equity blow out both ways in shock situations. The underlying size of this economy (14T GDP) tells you of the capacity and potential of total earnings. That is why the S&P could not fall further, because our capital assets have enormous productive capacity. (another reason why the supposition of a 10 multiple for impaired write-down driven earnings giving you 300 never was plausible)
Why don't you calculate where we are as of today's highs as a percentage off of the bear market low?
Maybe my math is wrong, but when I see numbers like that, the word "recovery" does leap to my mind.
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