all you guys are fools for guessing where the mkt is going. FOR CHRIST SAKE IT IS ALL PRICED IN. DO YOU KNOW HOW MUCH TIME YOU WASTE BABBLING ABOUT THIS. GET A NEW HOBBY!!
Any experienced trader know the bounce took only 30 minutes for 500 points will not sustain. No Volume to substantiate a reversal or recapitulation.
Consumers began to accumulate increasing debt to finanace their lifestyles in the early 80's which continues to this day. I will concede that an undoing of consumerist, Reagan, supply side economics will cause a catatrophic, multi-decade bear market like the one in Japan. If there is a fundamental change in psychology where consumers form all over the world (especially Brazil, China, Russia, EU, India) decide to stop accumulating debt and become frugal then yea the outcome would be truly devestating; worse than the great depression. A spending crunch would far worse than a fake financial crunch. But that won't happen. Until there of indications of a contraction in consumrism any selloffs will short lived and recoveries will be 'v' shaped.
DOW continue to drop today. -189 at this moment. It might test yesterday low to make a short term double bottom. Long Term, I see about 7500.
7500 8200 8500 9000 No one knows where the bottom is but what I do know is that DOW is not headed straight to 7500 or even 8500 there is going to be a substantial rally soon, the markets are just too oversold for a continued drop to those type of levels, I actually think the market could bounce back to 10500 or even 11500 before making that next move down.
Consumption is what drives the economy. Rising wages+tax cuts=more spending & consumption=more production=economic growth If this cycle breaks then the recovery will not be 'v' shaped. Do keep in mind the selling volume is light today. Funds are still holding.
That's what I thought about Bear Stearn, LEH, FNM, FRE, WM etc. ... WAY OVERSOLD, MUST RALLY ... not !!!