Just heard an analyst say 15000 dow by next year. At 11 times earnings. This means the market is looking to peak 18000. I am calling it (18000) by year term after series of a the short correction. Optimism is really a big thing in building consumer confidence. Nothing has changed. Spending is still going strong despite warnings. So here we go into an inflation zone. Higher interest rates and uncontrolled spending. Obama or Romney the market still wins. So at 18 times earnings we look for 19000 which is too optimistic. I don't see a ride to the top going straight u,p but 300 points over 20 days is not a far fetched idea. at 20 times earnings we reach a 20,000 level which may be the case in 2 years. Expect a few short corrections and trade like your pants are on fire but net net its possible to see 18000 this year. Too much money on the side lines. At 18 times earnings we can embrace 120 oil and start increasing the interest rate in term two OBAMA or Romney Term 1. If Rates go higher and tax rates go higher then no one cares. Many will attack me as usual and as usual I will be on point in the end. Healthcare will be repealed or restructured and then we can get back to basics. MyOffices is on record for 18k DOW 1850 S&P
Counterpoint, Grand_Super_Cycle thinks that US markets are going to break 2008/2009 lows this year. So we have you predicting a 35% further rise in markets ( if you are serious I'm not sure ), and he's predicting a 55% drop. That's quite a range !!! I look at it differently. I'd rather own IBM and/or AAPL and hope for a 35% gain, then the Dow or SPX. The former trade is far more likely to be successful then the latter.
Dow is currently at about 13,238. For it to go to 18,000, that's a 36% upside move. Statistically, for the last 50 years, what's the most the dow has ever gained in one year? I think it's unlikely we see 18k. More like +/- 10% edit: Here you go: Dow Jones Industrial Average Yearly Returns In the last 10 years, the Dow has never advanced more than 25%.
Btw it's even more difficult. Dow is already up 8% this year alone. So it really an 47% upside move if we hit 18,000. Seriously need to know your facts before you start making wild conjectures.