Bitstream: Do you still stand by the above mentioned statement? I think it is time to short on any significant rally for me that means two up days in a row.
The last few trades haven't been good for me. I have not been in sync with the market. Looking back I feel that I missed few opportunities for not following my plan. I was supposed to take some profit at 1200 but I didn't do so. I was supposed to trade V-bottom reversal and I did not do so. I am not going to regret about all the missed opportunities so I am going to do what I need to do now. One of the patterns that I have found intersting (by going over the daily price action for the last few months) is that there are not too may times when the market closed down 3 days in a row when it is in an uptrend and similarly there are not that many times when the market closed up 3 days in a row when it is in a down trend. The last 3 days before today were down days, so I'd like to play the market from the short side. I was hoping today to be an up day which it did, so I went short at 1242.75 with a stop at 1252.75. I'm expecting the market to break soon. We might see some follow through buying on Monday but I might try to fade that rally if there is one. Good Luck. PS. I understand that my journal entries are not the easiest to follow but if you have any questions I'll be happy to explain it. Let me leave you with this beautiful poem. See attached.
Hi Doublea I've change my short-term view: there's too much resistance overhead. I agree with your view of shorting rallies. On the other hand I still stand by my view that we will never see recent lows (1200) ever again for the remaining of the year and that we will finish the year with decent gains. The question for me is when the correction is gonna end, and I have to get a better look at the charts to know.
I'm reading this thread, good thread about trading eminis for learning the issue I've noticed is you are taking in things too discretionary, I believe that will become a big problem because you will miss signals or take unneeded signals. I've noticed you have thought processes such as , " is that there are not too may times when the market closed down 3 days in a row when it is in an uptrend and similarly there are not that many times when the market closed up 3 days in a row when it is in a down trend. " That can become an issue while trading the eminis. Because then you become all biased and it messes with your head since you are discretionary. Its sort of like, well if you are lying, then you know I'm lying, but if I know you are lying, then I know you wouldn't be lying to me because I know that you know that I am lying. What you think about that.
He'll be allright...there's nothing wrong in trying to get in overnight...sometimes it just doesn't work out and his stops were tight getting a pretty good risk:reward ratio for his trade.
Well I'm noticing some patterns as I go along. When I see theose pattern uncover I do get biased. I have no problem with it because I have stops to get me out if I'm wrong.
The quote below...those patterns your now noticing... Are they any of the patterns from the above quote ??? Also, when you said below you do get a bias and you have no problem with it while protecting yourself via having a stop in place... That implies your trading your bias. What's the difference between trading your bias from the below quote and trading your opinions from the above quote ??? My last question...if the patterns from the below quote is different from the patterns in the above quote... Why are you deviating from your workable methods ??? NihabaAshi
Im not sure I follow, didn't you plan to enter your trade overnight, to partecipate to the whole morning action? in other words was a last minute decision to go long and at those levels or was it part of your strategy? There could be a problem here...
Okay, let me explain the reasoning. The new patterns are not part of the patterns that I mentioned on the first post. I went through the daily price action over the past few months and noticed that 2 day reversal seems to work to initiate a postion in the direction of the trend. It is just that if I miss the opportunity to initiate a position when one of the 1st post pattern occurs, I will like to wait for a pullback to enter a position. Regarding being biased, I believe that I'm biased based on the price action. May be I need to work on it more. I'm bearish on the US markets right now. The reason being high inflation, high valuation, weak dollar and a tougher immigration policies, but I'm not going to short the market just beacause I think it is going down. I need some catalyst ------and those are all the patterns in the 1st post and an addition to that which is 3 consecutive up/down days.