It seems the sell-off from 11/27 was just a 1 day thing. Market looks strong, time to get back long. Entered ES at 1397.50. Initial stop @ 1388. I will buy SPY at the close only.
The Naz held its Pivot Point perfectly and bounced the markets to new highs. Intra-day price action should be less relevant in a longer term, overnight sytstem. JJ
I have never used pivots. I usually look for the % change. If I'm long and SP is up 0.5% and Nasdaq is up 0.3% only, I'd like to get out. I have used this for a while and it seems to work, I miss few opportunities but the winners are big and the losses are small. If you look at my post from 11/22, I had mentioned that I did not like the Russell underperforming the SP. It happened about 3 days in a week. That was a sign that we could see some selling. I had suggested buying some puts on that day. Today, Russell and Nasdaq are underperfoming SP. The market tried to break-out in the morning but failed. We could see another 1% true selling day today. If that happens, I'll go to cash and wait till SP gets to its 13WMA, which is currently around 1360.
OK, that's a pretty decent critiera for making your decisions, fair enough ... ... with decent follow-through. Actually the market (currently in a bullish mode) did a basic retracement to Support (S1 as a matter of fact) and currently while the ES is down, the NQ is down by substantially less, so the NQ is outperforming the ES, even though both indicies are down. So long as the ES holds 1396 it's going to be "all good", if that beaks, yes it could be "look out below". My vote is for a positive close, we might even hit 1406. If does go back down to 1396, that will only be a retest of Support. Good talking trading with you. Regards, JJ
Jimmy: You're correct but it looks like we are looking at different things. I am looking at the cash index SP and Nasdaq and not ES or NQ. For Russell I use IWM though.
I'm still long SPY from yesterday. Need to see how today unfolds. If Nasdaq and IWM underperform SPY today, I'm out no matter whether we close up or down for the day. If Nasdaq and IWM outperform SPY today, I'll add to my longs and I'm done and will just wait for the upside trend to resume. If I were day-trading, I'll sell here at 1398 with stop 1402, target close.
Yeah I hear you D In fact, the market is showing slight favoritism to your Short position if you're looking purely at the technicals. But as your mentor said, always trade with the trend (at least, I think he did). This puppy is going back up. But it's great how we can look at very similar criteria and make completely different decisions. That as they say, is what makes a market. The only think is, I didn't have a mentor, so it took me three years (instead of several months) for me to put the pieces of the puzzle together. Best Regards, JJ edit: You might want to look at automating your system via tradestation. You have substantially less risk (due to less leverage) than e-mini traders, so you could probably do very well with, well, even less work!!!
just read journal, excellent trend following, personally dont look at so much info to confusing,but good for others.you mentioned futures may not be for you, well try index options.