With all the govt stimulus spending the markets will start a huge long-term rally again, make a double top formation near the 1500 level, and then suffer the biggest crash in its history as all the side-effects of the massive stimulus start popping up on the surface again. Feel free to add your own predictions on this...
100% disagree, March was a low that will never be seen again.... ever. I think we will re-test highs within the next few years, possibly fail or consolidate... but after 2020 or so the next new great bull will start.
I have to say the chances of seeing march lows again are about a 99.9% chance. Just the thought of a second stimulus should drop the markets 10%. What makes you think that by 2012 the markets will trend higher, look at the nasdaq and the tech bubble, its still 70% off from its highs set 8 long years ago, 8 years later tech still cant get back to levels seen in 2000. The DOT com bubble knocked out $5 TRILLION worth of market value. This latest credit crisis has cost house holds $14 TRILLION. The Dot com fallout did hit the economy hard however this latest crisis is the greatest ever to touch down on this economy. A turn around in this economy is at least a decade away. The only way to prop the markets higher is with stimulus and the great printing press that will only cause more problems as we move forward.
it makes sense. the corporate-banking-political establishment is bent on getting the economy back on track on a level rarely if ever seen before. you got the printing press running full time. and to sustain an economy that is based on bubbles, you have to create a bigger bubble every time unless you are willing to suffer the consequences, which is obviously not in their interests.
As long as the money funnel is kept full we still hang on. Take a look at the last 100 year chart of the Dow and look at the G.D. and look where we are now. A double top forming on the scale you are talking about would take 20 years to form. Akuma
I've posted on this topic before: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2487610#post2487610 No money available to buy stocks = no upside. Mom and Pop are going to take every opportunity to flatten out their 401k's on retracements that they can. In fact, I wonder what that guy who does the credit market report has to say about mutual fund outflows particularly from equity funds. Would be interesting to research.
no chance we revisit the real value of 1500 before 2018 and i wouldn't be surprised if we don't see it again period. only way we'll see it is with wiemarch dollars. this next bear market is going to be another deflation trade to ruin the gold bugs who all jumped in after gold ran up 400% from the 2001 levels- we will see those levels again prolly dropping oil to 20$ and gold to 200$, at that point we will see a steady fleeing from the danger of the dollar and our real standard of living will fall out of the dreamy sky we are currently in. dm