Double or Triple in a Year?

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Dynamic Greeks, Oct 22, 2012.

  1. Here is the update of this journal for the month of Nov.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Nov. 30, 2012:
    $14,062

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    43.51%

    Return in the month:
    21.86%

    Return in the week:
    0.46%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.5801%

    Expect account to double on:
    Mar 7, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Low

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    7.39%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $12,188

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $451

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;



    PS:

    From chart, we can clearly see that this account is underperforming in last two weeks. It is due to the options expiration and/or some hedge position(s) closing. Also, we can see VAR is very small as of last Friday’s close. It means that the account has very small risk exposure for now, thus expect further “underperforming” in next couple of weeks at least.

    I choose to have small exposure to the market is because of the coming holiday seasons. The options premium has been priced for shortened time. Yet, those holidays are still there. There could still be some potential market moving news developing in those days.
     
    #11     Dec 1, 2012
  2. Here is the update of this journal for the 1st week of Dec.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Nov. 30, 2012:
    $14,325

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    46.19%

    Return in the month:
    NA

    Return in the week:
    1.87%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.5633%

    Expect account to double on:
    Mar 12, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Low

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    7.39%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $12,248

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $1,101

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;
     
    #12     Dec 8, 2012
  3. Here is the update of this journal for the 2nd week of Dec.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Dec 14, 2012:
    $14,043

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    43.32%

    Return in the month:
    NA

    Return in the week:
    -0.39%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.4867%

    Expect account to double on:
    Apr 9, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Low

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    7.39%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $14,486

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $3,137

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;
     
    #13     Dec 16, 2012
  4. Here is the update of this journal for the 3rd week of Dec.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Dec 14, 2012:
    $13,576

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    38.54%

    Return in the month:
    NA

    Return in the week:
    -3.33%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.4015%

    Expect account to double on:
    May 23, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Low

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    7.39%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $16,655

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $3,036

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;



    PS:
    I’ll not update this journal next week since there will be only one more trading day to end of the month after next Friday. I’ll update this journal by the end of the month.
     
    #14     Dec 23, 2012
  5. Here is the update of this journal for Dec.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Dec 31, 2012:
    $14,028

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    43.16%

    Return in the month:
    -0.24%

    Return in the week:
    NA

    Simple average daily return:
    0.4072%

    Expect account to double on:
    May 20, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Medium

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    12.40%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $8,886

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $2,849

    Greeks:
    Delta and Vega were both exceeded predefined range. Thus immediate action was taken to bring them back to predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;
     
    #15     Jan 2, 2013
  6. Here is the update of this journal for the 1st week of Jan.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Jan 4, 2013:
    $14,634

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    49.34%

    Return in the month:
    NA

    Return in the week:
    16.61%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.4486%

    Expect account to double on:
    Apr 27, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Medium

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    12.40%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $17,465

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $2,948

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;
     
    #16     Jan 5, 2013
  7. tayte

    tayte

    Hey just wanna say you're doing great. Looking forward to your future performance, all the best 2013.
     
    #17     Jan 5, 2013
  8. Here is the update of this journal for the 2nd week of Jan.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Jan 11, 2013:
    $14,784

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    50.87%

    Return in the month:
    NA

    Return in the week:
    1.02%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.4348%

    Expect account to double on:
    May 4, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Medium

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    12.40%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $16,522

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $3,730

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;
     
    #18     Jan 12, 2013
  9. Here is the update of this journal for the 3rd week of Jan.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Jan 11, 2013:
    $14,948

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    52.55%

    Return in the month:
    NA

    Return in the week:
    1.11%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.4238%

    Expect account to double on:
    May 10, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Medium

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    12.40%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $11,154

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $4,001

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;
     
    #19     Jan 20, 2013
  10. Here is the update of this journal for the 4th week of Jan.

    [​IMG]



    Performance:

    Account Value at the beginning (Sep. 16, 2012) of this journal:
    $9,799

    Account Value as of Friday, Jan 25, 2013:
    $14,407

    Return since the beginning of this journal:
    47.03%

    Return in the month:
    NA

    Return in the week:
    -3.62%

    Simple average daily return:
    0.3590%

    Expect account to double on:
    Jun 21, 2013


    Equity curve (initial value set at zero):
    See attached chart
    [​IMG]


    Parameters compliance since the beginning of this journal:


    Risk experienced:
    Medium

    Max drawdown experienced (based on daily close):
    12.40%

    Initial Margin at most recent close:
    $14,719

    VAR at most recent close (99.5% confidence):
    $4,205

    Greeks: were all within predefined range.
    Delta, ****; Gamma, ****; Vega, ****; Theta, ****;



    PS:
    We’ve been “told” that the VIX has dropped to 5, 6 years low recently. Ahhhhh……???? So while near the money put options premium dropped across-the-board but many far far far OTM put options premium did not drop on Friday. Some of them even increased. That means that there always has some meat for those traders who understand the Greeks even with such lower VIX.

    Obviously, the recent poor performance of this account is due to the inverse movement/relationship of the options. So while it lasts, take the advantage of it!
     
    #20     Jan 26, 2013