Doom or BOOM ??

Gotcha · Mar 29, 2017

Quantfisher said:
I'm suggesting that everyone is surf until proven innocent.
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Totally agree with you there, and you included, especially considering your brand new status yet ability to just jump right in. You're clearly a multiple alias. But no matter, its a waste of time participating in any of this.

Quantfisher · Mar 29, 2017

And what if you emailed that trader something and a half a dozen random aliases came at you on this site all hot-like?

Gotcha · Mar 29, 2017

Quantfisher said:
And what if you emailed that trader something and a half a dozen random aliases came at you on this site all hot-like?
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Sorry.... you lost me. Just state your point.

Quantfisher · Mar 29, 2017

Gotcha said:
Sorry.... you lost me. Just state your point.
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ASSUME EVERYONE HERE IS A FERRARI DRIVING CHEESEBURGER EATING PROGNOSTICATOR.

Overnight · Mar 29, 2017

Quantfisher said:
ASSUME EVERYONE HERE IS A FERRARI DRIVING CHEESEBURGER EATING PROGNOSTICATOR.
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I had to like your last two posts here. They are relevant and funny, and I am a fan of rarely-used words.

But in your opine, would you also consider him to be engaging in a bit of prestidigitation?

Quantfisher · Mar 29, 2017

drcha · Mar 29, 2017

Gotcha said:
I accepted not too long ago that the debt doesn't matter. It only matters to honest and hard working people who have a brain. When you work in finance or the government, you don't have a brain, or you at least accept that having a brain is detrimental to your success in that field.

You see, government debt doesn't work the same as personal debt. In some ways, this is true because governments don't die, so its not like they need to pay it off during their working years, unlike people. But it still nevertheless is all a lie because the debt will never be paid back. All that matters is that the people who buy your bonds believe that they will get their money plus a little bit of interest, even if that interest means nothing. In exchange, the government will do everything they can to make sure the value of all tangible assets goes up. The government only has to create the illusion of stability and then all is well and fundamentals don't matter.

We all know the bubble will eventually burst, but every single person who is on the inside hopes and prays its not on their watch. As long as they can convince the public that for the next few years everything is ok, then they did their job. If you have lots of money, its because the government created an environment for you to reap the rewards. In return, you jump on the bandwagon by keeping up this illusion. Since the government has created so much money out of thin air, this money has to go somewhere, so it goes back into the system to prop it all up.

This here is key. There is no benefit to anyone on the inside to burst the bubble. They have to keep it going until they can no longer control it. I believe this happens when nobody else believes you anymore since the whole economy and monetary policy is based on trust. Maybe when people don't value the US dollar anymore in a big way things will roll over, but who really knows.

In the past, things have ended in mass revolts, when the citizens stand up against the regime. The thing is now its not like its just a king or some family, but elected officials who supposedly work in our best interests., which they clearly don't, but that's the illusion. Besides, nobody cares if they are getting screwed as long as they get a piece of the pie. The rich double their money, and the poor are happy to get a 1% raise. If the poor fought harder, or had the brains or will power to do so, they probably wouldn't be poor for long cause they would have climbed the ranks.

Anyway, the point is the debt doesn't matter. All that matters is if you can sell a story that people will buy. It worked in 2008/09, but who knows if it will work again. It probably will, and there are more rich people now than ever, so I have to assume that a shift isn't happening any time soon.
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Yes, sort of like life. We all know we're gonna die, but we just ignore that and keep on dancing.

ironchef · Apr 4, 2017

drcha said:
How about if we just quit spending so much? Our debt is not currently unsustainable. It's just that we keep growing it instead of shrinking it. And we refuse to beef up the AMT or phase out the mortgage deduction at a lower level. I'm not saying those are necessarily the best ideas, but they are likely to increase tax receipts immediately.
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US Gov can just print more greenback as long as we are willing to accept them. The Fed increased money supplies by over $1 Trillions and the US$ got stronger.