Doodi's long term portfolio

Discussion in 'Journals' started by mister_doodi, Jan 13, 2009.

  1. [​IMG]

    I went in with a plan to aggressively buy dividend stocks with and I managed to bring to total portfolio to yield 5.11% annually as of Jan 12, 2008 despite Microsoft (2.74% yield) being my largest holding.

    My unrealized P&L has been swing from -$800 to +$2000. In the scheme of things that does not matter much as I'm not looking to make a quick buck rather muscle my way into good stocks at good prices to capture good dividends.

    If my holding stays the same as in not buying any stock or adding to a position, I would make $293 a quarter and $1173 annually. 5 year dividend growth rate for the entire portfolio is very hard to measure but it stands in the range of 18% to 30%. Which means around every 3 years my dividend payout doubles. In case of dividend cuts it wouldn't lower my average much as MSFT's 5 year dividend growth rate is 40.63% and I do not foresee them cutting their dividends in the next 5 years.

    My only real bad trade so far is Bank of America (BAC) but I am far from worried about that stock on my portfolio. We can't always have a perfect list of stocks. My average price is flexible enough to dump it for a small loss on the next market swing up or hold it indefinitely.

    Speculative buys: CTIC and USO.
  2. Future predictions:

    I do think we are bottoming out and a depression was narrowly avoided although means to that end came out of a discombobulated fed policies. In saying that, I am still a bear and I think we can expect to see lower prices epically in blue chips.

    Two of Dow 30's stocks AT&T (T) and General Electric (GE) broke out of their intermediate support levels. In looking at GE, it looks as though the stock found support at the 61.8% fib. If the market breaks down further 78.8% fib level is expected to be it's next support level. Although that is pretty obvious thats where the stock needs to go to fill it's gap. If somehow it stays at that level and successfully fill the gap and starts going higher that could signal a very bullish sign for GE.

    That is one of the best case scenarios. Worst case is making a new low below the Nov lows. That could cause nightmares for bullish technical analysts as it creates a chart with a lower low. It will also cause an irrational sell off on this stock and bring this stock into the single digits where the sellers over shoot to the bottom.

  3. My wish list:

    I would like to own B shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B or BRK-B). But at current prices ($3200) I don't see good valuation and relatively safety in share price relative to the lows it made in November.

    Good entrance price I see is around $2900 to $3000. This stock I definitly missed out on because I cover so many stocks each day but I won't go out and chase it, rather I'm comfortable letting it come to me. Future for Berkshire Hathaway looks uncertain but it's core business look strong personnel wise especially their insurance unit.



    Walmart (WMT) is a stock I like as one of my top 3 holdings. I had the chance to pull the trigger at 50.50 last week but I noticed it on moments notice and was not prepared with enough information to execute that trade. Again, this stock is not worth chasing and price above $53 historically would be a large premium over it's 5 year average. I like to see this stock in the 50 to 51 range to pull the trigger. Thats only $6 over the median price Walmart reached in 2005 through 2007.