dont worry, shanghai at new record high...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Apr 11, 2007.

  1. S2007S


    its only up about 5% in the last 3 trading days.

    :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

    SSE Composite Index (Shanghai:000001.SS) Delayed quote data Edit
    Index Value: 3,495.22
    Trade Time: 3:00AM ET
    Change: Up 50.93 (1.48%)
    Prev Close: 3,444.291
    Open: 3,454.417
    Day's Range: 3428.78 - 3497.52
    52wk Range: 1,328.44 - 3,444.37
  2. Irrational exuberance.
  3. Mvic


    I wonder how many people know that there are many stock, big names on the Shanghai exchange that trade at a premium, so0metimes as much as 100% to the very same share in the same company traded on the Hong Kong exchange. I believe that Citi securities was trading at a 50% premium at the beginning of the year and has probably increased since then. Also in the case of Citi it is valued at 11Billion US with earnings of $150M. In contrast Etrade is valued at 9Billion in the US with earnings of $2Billion. Ofcourse it isn't growing earnings 12 times yoy like citi sec in china but nevertheless the valuation seems rich.
  4. Mvic


    incidentally the Hong Kong stocks used to trade at a premium for obvious reasons (ie free access and movement of money from HK and foreign investor participation). Now stocks on the Shanghai exchange trade at a premium, and a substantial one, and this is mostly because of the captive nature of the investors. Easy for them to invest in Shanghai exchange very hard for them to invest outside China. The problem with a system like this is that there are not outside investors to step in and buy when the valuation looks attractive and arbitrage is not possible between the exact same shares that are trading on the Shanghai exchange and the Hong Kong exchange (which is why they are so out of whack). The conclusion that I have come to is that when their market crashes the stocks will trade at substantial discounts to the shares that trade on the Hong Kong exchange because there will be no buyers at any price and no liquidity within the captive system. It will be written off by the government as western influenced excesses infecting the Chinese system and will be used to further the nationalist agenda.
  5. ===============
    Catchy headline also , high on this page;
    Shanghai at new record high:cool:
  6. S2007S


    A 10% sell off is very close.....

    SSE Composite Index (Shanghai:000001.SS) Delayed quote data Edit
    Index Value: 3,531.03
    Trade Time: 3:00AM ET
    Change: Up 35.80 (1.02%)
    Prev Close: 3,495.224
    Open: 3,503.227
    Day's Range: 3488.08 - 3532.86
    52wk Range: 1,328.44 - 3,497.52
  7. This is important info for anyone who think Shanghi can save the world on the next break, acturally they will be the killer.

    I know people don't want to hear this, but hey, believe what you want, but you better watch out for this.

    Good Trading.
  8. john12


    its not just china its mexico 16k-30k in 8 months and brazil 32k to 47k in 8 months or india. its been a huge emerging market mega bubble. many markets up 4 and 5 times since 2002. were hearing the same excuses as naz 1999 like unlimited growth as far as the eye can see. we know the ending
  9. so bottom line is there will be a bear market soon enough...
  10. john12


    this bull market is 4 1/2 years old this month which is one of the longest in history. add that to basically 18 years up from 1982-2000 and this markets on borrowed time. that said its impossible to call when the tops in. heck this could run to 14k first as nobody knows
    #10     Apr 15, 2007