I scalped for a prop firm in Chicago for a couple years and did poorly and I've since discovered systems trading and I'm trying to find something that suits my personality. I find trend following to be extremely tough because the drawdowns are big and the win rate for each individual trade is low. I believe my style is more suited towards waiting for very short-term, extremely high percentage opportunities and taking profits where the risk-reward is somewhere in the realm of 2-1. I know a lot of people advocate a higher ratio but obviously your success rate on each trade is lower in that scenario, and psychologically I just have a tough time dealing with that. I'm definitely only interested in intraday trading and occasionally holding winning positions overnight but generally from the studies I've done, I think 1-2 hours is my average holding time. Anyway, I'd really like to talk to some other traders with a similar mentality, but I also have a question: let's say I do find a short term strategy that gets me in around 3 times a day and the win ratio is 50%. The odds of me being wrong even 5 times in a row is only 1/32, so I would think with 90 trades in a month, I would basically never have a losing month. Compare this with longer term strategies where you can have losing YEARS. My question is, other than time constraints and paying higher commissions, why would anyone choose not to trade shorter term??? Aren't I correct in my assumptions here?? By the way, if anyone would like to discuss systems trading with me, please feel free.