Don't risk your money on myths

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Murray Ruggiero, Aug 10, 2011.

Do you use backtesting ?

  1. I don't know how to do it.

    7 vote(s)
    11.1%
  2. I think backtesting is a fraud

    14 vote(s)
    22.2%
  3. I use it for simple systems but not my chart analysis

    7 vote(s)
    11.1%
  4. I would not trade anything without testing it

    35 vote(s)
    55.6%
  1. Eight

    Eight

    Murray, you can just recommend to all the people reading this thread that they refrain from quoting certain people or put them on ignore. I think it would not be impolite for you to publish a blacklist. You yourself could put them on ignore as well.

    Alternatively if you could charge 1$ admission I'm sure that most of the problems would go away :)
     
    #41     Aug 14, 2011
  2. luisHK

    luisHK




    Good luck Murray, but I suspect cracking the market code is easier than having clean threads after ProfLogic and Surf have both decided to pop in :eek:
     
    #42     Aug 14, 2011
  3. Political and idealogical posturing doesn't stand up to the multitude of data I have about ProfLgoic's systems, and since Surf has really chosen to mudsling versus research it is pretty difficult to get him to analyze his methods.

    Murray does have a product, but as far as using it myself I'm sorry, if it's not easylanguage, wealth script, or C# coding, I don't believe it can process as quickly or execute as efficiently.

    I don't see why a third party product can not allow any datafeed into its software for system testers to use. It is very limited in that regard and I think prof's Doctor's-didn't- think-much-of-penicillin- at- first- either is very appropriate and humorous.

    You want to talk about more myths? Jack Hershey's system only works on one thing. Prof's on everything, and mine in cases where there are two highly correlated securities on everything too to a more limited extent. There's still parameters to be determined but Jack's had the same macd and stoch values for a long time and until some dude coded it in tradestation it had never made it publicly, but if you look up my backtests on it it was pretty good but considered a curve fit in the Wealth Lab forums by several people but more specifically Dr. Rene Koch.
     
    #43     Aug 14, 2011
  4. Argent

    Argent

    #44     Aug 14, 2011
  5. I've found backtesting particularly good for optimizing stoplosses.

    Has been very useful in my trading.

    Chart Lion
     
    #45     Aug 19, 2011
  6. jsp326

    jsp326

    That's why all of your live trading attempts (Collective2 and Covestor) have ended in losses?

    Murray is a very knowledeable system developer and analyst. Prof should let someone like him test his system, per Murray's normal and rigorous procedures. Not some "look at the program in its beautiful, objective, volume bar environment....you don't even need to test the signals..it's profitability is self-evident!" myth.
     
    #46     Aug 19, 2011
  7. It's like asking if you believe in the scientific method. I am qualified enough to make those judgements myself.
     
    #47     Aug 19, 2011
  8. jsp326

    jsp326

    In your own mind, sure.

    In the real world of serious system trading, Prof and Hershey Bar's work would be thoroughly backtested and forward-tested using all of the industry-standard metrics. No one would risk a dime based on pretty charts and esoteric theories.
     
    #48     Aug 19, 2011
  9. I'm certain that I've analyzed the charts extensively, having observed its trades since January 2010. I have plenty of information and evidence.

    There isn't any other analysis that needs to be done.
     
    #49     Aug 19, 2011
  10. cornix

    cornix

    Manually backtest patterns to collect statistical information about them, but overall forward testing is much more useful, because it gives true experience on how exactly the given pattern shows itself and works.
     
    #50     Aug 20, 2011