Great advice. I went to the RISE conference in Dayton Ohio with my school this year and heard mutual fund managers talking about some of their negative years as great because they outperformed the market. It was sickening... its sad that some people actually pay money for some of these funds.
Optioncoach is right - some people with high risk tolerance might make 50% or more in 2 months (like Neke in his journal), while someone managing 10 million would be happy with a few percent a month. Percent return is only meaningful in the context of drawdown/blowout risk you are taking.
I agree with you and disagree with you on some points. Actually I do think that it makes sense to set a goal to at least beat the SP500. If you don't, then why bother trading at all? You could just stick all your money in an index fund and leave trading to those who want to give their money away to brokers. Sure, this is fun. I enjoy it as a hobby, but if I'm going to spend this much time at something, and if I'm going to put real money at risk, then I want it to be worth it. You can say that my only goal is to make money be that 2000$ or 20,000$. But let me ask you, would you really go into a profession not knowing what the average person makes? Would you really put so much time and effort into this if you knew that the "average" person does not beat the benchmarks? Articles that I've read say that many traders don't make that much money at all, so I was simply curious if that's true. As for comparing myself to others, that's not really what I was thinking when I asked the question. I know there are those out there who are making a lot, and those who don't make anything at all. It wasn't my purpose to compare myself to other traders because I'm not making anything at all at this point. All of this is on paper, so the comparison issue is not really an issue. At least not yet. My real purpose in asking this question was to determine when I should stop doing this on paper and put real money to the test. I need to be able to justify to myself and to my husband that it's worth putting our money at risk. Over this past period, on paper, I made 14%, more than the benchmark. If I had been trading for real, maybe I would have made half of that. What I would like to be able to do is show my husband a tally sheet six months from now with consistent numbers demonstrating that I know what I'm doing. Then I could feel confident about my ability to do this with real money. I simply don't know what is realistic to expect, so I asked. I was curious. Maybe you're right, maybe it won't help me. I guess we'll see.
Again you are blinded by what the average person does and missing the point. The average person does not beat the S&P because the average person is a bad trader, no doubt about it. It is worthwhile to know what the index does in general but your returns and goals are based on your investment style and risk management. If the index is down 10% and you loss 5% are you happy to beat the market? Forget the articles written by non-traders, trust me they will not give you useful information. Most traders jump into this without the right disicpline, experience and respect for the market so they lose money. How much you make depends on what kind of trading you are doing. Focus on consistency and long-term overall results and not industry repeated tripe about average investors. As for what is realistic to expect, expect nothing, just put your nose down to the grind and work at it and see how you do. If you work hard and focus on the trades themselves then the returns should take care of themselves. My advice is not to ignore all of these things, but that you are putting the cart before the horse. First see if you can make money consistently over time, not just in a bullish market over 4 months. Then you can determine your relative performance. Use 10% as a guide and try to make above 10% since that is what is quoted as SPX average returns over time. B
Haven't posted in a while. I've been reading Spydertrader's equities journals. I'm through the first and about 200 pages into the second. I decided to try to paper trade the Jack Hershey method for the next few months to see how I do with it. I am not trying any of the more advanced approaches with this method, only what I have read so far, and I'm also not trying to do any shorts yet. My plan is to continue this as I finish reading his journals and the additional Hershey documents. I also do not have a stocktables account yet so I've been screening once a week from the IBD100 list and also from the most recent final universe list that is posted in journal III -thus my watchlist will probably differ from others. I've done 4 paper trades so far. The first three ended in wash trades although they had moved up significantly just after I had bought them. The fourth, SYX, on tuesday, I decided to play as a day trade because I was getting tired of having wash trades. I made 3.5% profit on it. Perhaps i was too impatient as SYX rocketed yesterday, adding another 10%(approximately). Below is an analysis of the FRG trade I did yesterday. Recieved signal for FRG at about 10:05. At time of signal, macd was positive, stoch was at 90. Got in around 11.53. By close of the candle, stoch had fallen back down to about 50, so this was probably a signal that it was a false break out. However, I kept the stock with a 2.5% stop intending to sell at end of day or when my stop was hit. By end of day, FRV was never exceeded and the stock was still trading in a range where it had been all afternoon. Moved up very slightly at end of day, but never got near the high. Out at 11.48 with a .4% loss. Today (June 28) FRG gapped open and continued to move up - see chart. Just after this chart was printed, volume jumped up, so it is now certain to hit DU by 11:30. However price has declined significantly. On watchlist for June 28: BTJ CHDX DRYS FRG GROW IIG JADE ROCM. GROW is looking favorable.
That's a tough one. You caught the high of the bar that signalled more was to come, imho. I calculate pace throughout the day, so I caught FRG a little later than you, and held it into today. FWIW, I find that AMEX stocks take a little longer to get going with the hershey system then others, so I give them a little more time. Also, if you look back at the cycles the AMEX final universe stocks have done you'll notice that often they tend to "creep" up, instead of explode. Not sure what the reason for this is, but I like to hold them as long as volume is building and the price is not declining. Good for catching gaps like FRG. Good trading to you! TNG
very please that you have decided to buckle down and follow the thread step by step. You may end up being the very first JH female trader. There is no rush to skip ahead since this is life long pursuit. Just for perspective it had been 18 years since Tinament Square, 6 years from 9/11, time fly when you are focus, good job.
Didn't get any breakouts on the stocks I was watching yesterday. Today I missed the breakouts on BTJ and DRYS due to work at my "real" job. Looking to see whether there will be an additional opportunity to get in on BTJ later this afternoon.
Angie, A working individual about to become a mother doesn't always have time to scan the stock universe and monitor price movement on multiple stocks. As a less timely alternative, you might consider: concentrate on the SPY stock only. The SPY stock is an index tracking stock representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500. Here is some of the advantages of concentrating on an index tracking stock: 1: Less time preparing your trades. You only monitoring one thing. A trader can become more proficient if they concentrate on only one thing. Its the old saying: "Get good or get out"! 2: When holding an index tracking stock overnight, you are not subject to overnight news of a single bad earnings report, or a bad report on the company CEO, or a sudden loss of sales contracts for that company. 3: Smoother, Lower Volatility trading: Its take a 10 point move in the S&P500 index to move the SPY tracking stock 1 point. This allows you physiologically tough out down days easier. Jeff