Right now oil is enjoying a bear market rally. Gasprom/Ukraine is the driving force in oil prices for the moment ......depending on what unfolds will dictate how oil performs near term. This issue continues oil will continue the uptrend, Once this is resolved oil prices will sell off and test lows. Declining demand\global recession is still the catalyst to push prices down. 12-18-24+? months from now when the world economies once again begin to grow and demand returns and increases.....then oil will finally bottom.
Dec 09 Oil is at 62$ !!! whilfe feb trading at 48.5..., that's 13.50... probably much less than actual cost of carry. bloomberg picked it up today: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahkU9Lg5fzoA&refer=home just opened a position, i think the spread will tighten before expiration. (last trading day 2 weeks from now). LONG CLG9 48.77, SHORT CLZ9 62.2. --> 13.43$
did more research and concluded the trade is not really that good, due to strange things that can happen toward expiration... just checked, and the january 09, dec 09 spread went to 20$ towards the end..
Yes, you are correct. They did in fact make a payout based on the swap investments that they had replicating the index. And the dividend was totally reflected in the DROP of the index on December 23rd, when the DUG opened at $28.31 from a previous close of $34.67
I got kicked in the teeth with oil. I do have OIH shares as well as others and futures. I was down near 50% before I added onto certain positions. Of course, I'm looking longer term, I'm in the Oil Industry so I'm betting my life on Oil. Nevertheless, being down X% in a position is not fun. I do believe that Oil will come back near 70/75. Nat. Gas is hanging in there but I have yet to get into it, futures or otherwise. GS called some of my clients pitching Natural Gas futures, so I have a feeling Energy is about to catch the attention of many "Side Line" cash holders.