lucrum, piss off you turd. my p&l is bright green this morning and i love it. that confidence number was terrible, and banks are downgrading each other. everyone will be a bear again real soon. im not covering anything, we'll be at 1250 again shortly.
Last week we had . . . Nothing but bad news from the media. One of the most skewed put/call ratios of the last 10 years. Spread between smart money/dumb money largest in years per Sentimentrader.com. A retest of the Jan lows that found buyers. We got extremely overbought over last couple sessions and most likely consolidate to work that off. Looking for <1300 in the S&P? Not likely at least over the next couple months
couple months?? try friday. i really hope we rally, im not short enough. i shorted more retailers today - got a little impatient. i want to add on the way up not down. but i think we'll end up down 2% today and dont want to miss out. everybodys long now, this is gonna be sweet...
I don't doubt we back off some next couple days, but to get -2% today you will need the perpetual bid in the high betas to soften up. IWM,XLF, and QQQQ have been heavily shorted. Of the 3, only XLF has shown any sustained weakness today.
the market tone has changed. there is a bid under the market. it could last a while unless there is some other shoe to drop in the news. it might be prudent to not get too aggressive shorting too soon.
I think we have entered the early stages of a bear market. Most trends have 3 Big legs to it. I suspect this bear market will be no different. Currently, i think we are about half way through the first big leg down. We are probably going to see some end of the quarter window dressing this week to get the monthly close above last months close.......after that, we will probably see the second half of the first Big leg down. I have been wrong in the past and could very well be wrong again.....
They're starting to shake my ass out. Action today is incredibly bullish. Market should be down 200+. We may still get it but I ain't doing my victory dance yet. Them boys don't want to take a dive... even when they should... which usually leads to a stronger rally. Remember the strongest trends happen against the fundamentals... people don't believe it and keep going against the trend and getting squeezed which leads to more acceleration.