I bought @ 1303-1310 on fed day last week. My plan was to scale ou on the way to 1400. So far I'm doing just that. This may be a good area to short who knows. I sure don't!
1370 on s&p tomorrow - i hope. gonna double down baybay!!! loved the follow thru today btw...that was pretty weak close. i dont know if we even make it to 1370 before big selloff.
If uncertainty is bearish, then I cannot image more bearishness than revealed by the Bear saga. One day Bear's chief says it is fine. Two days later, Bear is insolvent, but not enough folks know that and the share holds up at 30. A day later, that share is worth 2 bucks, with a put written by FED attached to it like a warrant. Then, within a few days, that share increases in value five or six times. Can anyone 'splain all that? If not, I'd say uncertainty is running on the high side just now.
i said over a year ago that this was a liquidity bubble. liquidity was dictating asset prices but sooner or later fundamentals would take charge. i think we're in the last legs of liquidity propping up the market, maybe 6-12 months before things really blow up. bonds the next bubble? foreign bonds maybe?
IF you short here , it will be short lived with your shirt off your back and trousers in the yellow goop.
Here is some Technical Analysis from S& P Marketscope that you can digest for your nightmares of shorting here: "All three major indexes are now above their respective 50 day moving averages. The most positive, especially to those Dow Theory believers, is that the DJ Transportation Average is now above its 200 day moving average and looks to have put in a bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern. The strength in transports suggests the overall market is likely to strengthen down the road. Despite two days of gains, all three major indexes are not overbought yet. We could get more upside in the near term as there are still not many believers in this rally. Many are asking whether it is just another bear market rally or end of quarter window dressing. Window dressing or not, such skeptical sentiment can be positive for stocks as the conversion of non-believers will provide a driving force to send stocks higher over the longer term. With that said, it is safe to put some money to work on the dips and put in some hedges on the rips"
screw it, life is short. i made bucketloads shorting CC, borders, and other piss poor retailers. im short the hell out of barnes and nobles now (put on at the close today.) fed has half its balance sheet already in use backing these taf auctions and thru other liquidity measures. rates are already near zero. feds running out of room. unemployement number is gonna be brutal, and people will wake up out of their coma soon, and ill make a killing. or ill wallow in the yellow goop - so be it.
You cannot fight the Feds, Treasury Department and Congress of United States trying to improve the lot of American people for your measly day to day scalps and short. Feds own you and your Banks and all your money and your destiny. Market is not punishing the Feds, they are punishing the shorts and bears. Markets will go higher.. with or without you. Shorting is very hazardous on this momentum.
all good points. but this momentum makes me want to short even more. its so artificial. the notion that we're going to have a V-shaped recovery from this gigantic mess (housing, credit, etc.) is ridiculous. what goes up must come down. my timing may be off, but im prepared to stay with this one for a bit. i'll puke it out around s&p 1450 if it gets there.
& should we trade up to 1400/1425......i take it you will double that double down? very generous of you to share this guranteed winning trade........ET is just full of these random acts of kindness.