Don't be an Average Joe

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 7, 2015.

  1. Yep. There is this thing called momentum that many efficient market theorists don't seem to grasp. Positions shift out of the zero-sum zone within seconds if you know WTF you're doing.
     
    #21     Dec 7, 2015
    fortydraws likes this.
  2. Stewie

    Stewie

    Agreed. If trading at a key level, and its clearly rejected initially, then the target could be quite far away if you zoom out to the hourly chart.

    Out of curiosity, what chart would you use to time your entry? (time vs. volume and how fast of a chart?) I assume that when looking for a precision entry, what you're looking for to happen would have to be something about the way price is moving in real time versus just looking at a bunch of 1 minute bars?
     
    #22     Dec 7, 2015
  3. Stewie. I don't think he will be be disclosing this information. It's pretty much the secret sauce
     
    #23     Dec 7, 2015
  4. Stewie

    Stewie

    Geeezzz.. now you're giving him ideas! LOL... Its not giving anything away... its simply pointing to where a person should look. :)
     
    #24     Dec 7, 2015
  5. Even if he disclosed it, there are many other trade management variables that have to line up before execution. Entry precision is huge though
     
    #25     Dec 7, 2015
  6. Stewie

    Stewie

    Agreed. It of course also helps if your entry precision is at the right place. No sense in trying to time an entry if you're totally out in left field so to speak.

    So it seems like you need to have a larger view of where to look for a trade. Then you need to figure out which way it looks likes its gonna go when it gets there. Then you need to time your entry. Then you need to have figured out what to do if it doesn't instantly go your way. And of course if it doesn't work out this time, you have to know that there was nothing wrong with what you did and just wait for the next opportunity.

    See... so answering my above question isn't giving anything away when you realize the monumental checklist of things that need to line up. :)
     
    #26     Dec 7, 2015
  7. You're on the right track, and you're seeing how tough it is. If you can't find a way to think outside the box, you will get nibbled to death
     
    #27     Dec 8, 2015
    Stewie likes this.
  8. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    Stewie,

    Here's a hint that goes against what many believe (don't forget most traders, posters, utterly suck), you obtain surgical entries without using fast timeframes. That's why when I see people talking about 1min and 5min for precision I just laugh about it, it clearly tells me, they just haven't discovered it and it gives those in the know a sense of superiority.

    That's all I will say, rest is up to you.
     
    #28     Dec 8, 2015
  9. Stewie

    Stewie

    I am all for going against what most posters and traders are doing, but this makes it that much more important to get it right. If you're going to go to an area that most don't venture to go, its more important to have a clear sense of direction when you're there since it will obviously be a vast and barren landscape.

    Saying this, talking about surgical entries but not using fast charts seems like a contradiction to me. 1 min I don't consider fast enough.. I just threw it out there as an example. (most people here have said that anything below a 1 min is useless, so its really hard to get help on the forum when most people don't agree with you).

    Anyway, so if you're saying a fast chart isn't where a surgical entry can be discovered, I'm at a loss for where else to look.
     
    #29     Dec 8, 2015
  10. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    I know its counter-intuitive, but follow this lead and you might get somewhere. Pick a liquid instrument with history, 5 years+, and open hourly, 2-hourly, 4-hourly, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quaterly charts, buy data if you must but don't ever spend on anything else, including useless indicators or seminars.

    Mark all swing lows, all swing highs, all swing high lows attempts that reacted and ended up failing and vice-versa, do so on every chart. Now do it on 10 instruments, and you will eventually gather enough quality information that will lead you to the right path, what makes price turns, it will help you understand how to predict turns before they even turn on small timeframes. Besides, most turns in small timeframes are noise, except for the real one causing the swing low swing high.

    It will take hundreds of hours of work just to gather something useful, but no book talks about this, and no one is going to tell you, your best chance is for you to discover it on your own.
    It will take you so much time to get in the know, when you finally do, you won't disclose it, due to its power and the hard work you went through.

    No one is going to do it for you, at least I'm telling you how to begin, correctly.

    Good luck, time to see recorded programs :)
     
    #30     Dec 8, 2015
    fortydraws and FCXoptions like this.