consistent success isn't the same thing as long term success. Or for that matter even the same as success. If you have to preface it with "consistent" that right there should give you pause for concern.
Out of curiosity, how do you define precision? When talking about the Apple stock a few days ago, the entry and stop were perhaps a good dollar away (can't recall the exact numbers), and the target was perhaps 3 dollars lower. This was therefore perhaps a 1:3 or 1:4 RR trade. If you were to day trade the ES, what do you call a precision entry and therefore, how tight of a stop would you use? Lets assume the average daily range is roughly 15 to 20 points, and not these rare 50 point days as of late. Since you are more of a swing trader, and the calls I've seen you make have been multi day moves, your stop (based on the market and hence important levels it seems) is a good bit away which means many of these trades seem to be of the 1:2 or 1:3 risk to reward variety. I'm not sure if I would consider these precision entries. I would think a precision entry is one where the trade starts working in a minute or two and doesn't come back to you. But your definition might of course be different and hence why I ask.
Considering I don't make public calls I'm not sure how you know where I enter, exit or place my stops. I have posted general suggestions on instrument main direction and guidance approximation when asked for an opinion but they are vague in nature because I don't go into detail on how I read or trade the markets. I will say this about stops though, if the trade does not go my way as I expected to I will exit immediately and without hesitation, why hope when you can always get back in?
yes, let's assume that. If we could just assume that...That would make a big ass trader out of me! Oh....if only I knew if it was going to be average (which it is most of the time) or "rare". Man, that would be nice.
Ah.. my apologies then. Based on the advice you were giving, I thought this somehow matched a trade that you might also take in a similar way.
Well... clearly we never know. But I think if you just did a simple statistical analysis, we would see that a daily range of 5 points is very rare (if ever, I'm not sure), and a range of 50 points in the ES is very infrequent. The reason I threw average into my question would be because people often place stops and targets based on volatility. Some days you can clearly see that a tight stop will take you out based on the jittery movement, so you maybe need to increase it, but at the same time, your profit target can also be increased since you see the length of the waves, etc.
No worries whatsoever, I do suggest reward > risk though, shorting high in downtrends and buying low in uptrends would be a very good start.
Come on now... that's an easy one... lets give up a better gold nugget! What you say though is interesting because if you are a swing trader, bailing on a trade right away is what I imagine most swing traders don't do. I would imagine that they try to give the trade a little bit of room. I'm not saying I feel the same way, just that this is what I surmise based on what I read.
Don't assume it's easy but the right way to do it, is for the trade to begin as a scalp but as you let the winner run notice it is now a swing trade.