I put in 17 buys and 17 sells (just a random number that came from picking several sectors, deleting some poor performers, etc.) From these 17, I try to get fills on around 3 or 4 for profits. Some of our traders literally put in hundreds of orders via automated programs and such, but I find that "getting out" is much harder than "getting in." ....thus I keep it to a few. Don
I skipped the last couple of openings (medication still involved, not a good mix). I see the Dr. this week, and will hopefully be taken off the pills and will be able to trade again. It is kinda funny though, how I did pretty well my first week out of the hospital....maybe I should stay medicated all the time!! Don
The historical FV data has little to do with the success of this strategy. There was significant back testing done without even using the FV, simply placing orders enveloping the prior day's closing price (which worked well, even leaving off this most important element). Since you are estimating the approximate opening price using the current day's FV of the futures, it prevents you from being on the "wrong side" when there is a major move on the opening. The whole idea is to trade with the Specialist on the opening (which is a fantastic edge), you don't need to worry too much about the details of getting in). The "getting out" takes some time to learn. Don
where did all the posters go.is it a bad streak for open orders or did everyone decide not to post anymore?
I think that a lot of posts since Don started the thread have pretty much proven that the technique works. That being said, there has been a lot of discussion of the effect of a lot of people using the techniques on the same stocks. If you post your results, there is always a response, or several, asking you for specifics on what stocks you traded. Obvously, the more OO participants there are in a stock, the less likely is a trade to occur, and if it does, you are competing with all the other OO traders to get out with a profit or small loss. I think that has dampened some of the daily postings. Also, it just gets old after a while. My week was a little flat - netting 17 cents after comish for the whole week. Good Monday and Friday and down Tuesday and Wednesday. 8 winners 6 losers.
I have missed a couple of openings during the last week due to my surgery, but I think that there may be another answer to the question about "where did all the posters go?" ....and that is that we are doing pretty well, and have become complacent in the success of the strategy. Even while "out" I manged to make $1000 or so per week doing the openings....and will (hopefully) be back in action some time next week. I would like to ask a few questions to those using the strategy, just for the sake of discussion......1. How many stocks are you putting orders in on? 2. Do you "scale" your bids and offers? 3. Approximately what percentage are you filled on. 4. What percentage are profitable. My numbers are about this: 1. Seventeen 2. No, not at this time. 3. Approximately 25-35%. 4. About 75%. This equates to net profits, which I am assuming you are enjoying. If there are any questions, please let me know!! Don
Don, My numbers are very close to yours: 1. Currently placing opening orders on 11 stocks. Currently watching/testing 87 stocks. 2. Yes, I adjust the number of shares for each stock based on it's price and my money management parameters. 3. Average 10% - 15% fill rate. 4. Average approximately 75% profitable trades.