Well, just don't overdo it in hospital with the wireless connection to boards . Take some time out to relax Good luck
Hi Don, I regret to say, "been there, tried that" to no avail. You'll probably be hooked up to a wireless telemetry module so that they can monitor you at a central station using receivers throughout the hallway. Heck, they won't even let you use cell phones...as bad as being on an airplane Anyway, the best of luck and a speedy recovery. You'll be missed here.
I took all tech off my list and made 32 cents on 6 fills. The only two losers were the two longs I had. Still used a 1% envelope on both sides, as usual. When the futures started to climb further after the open, I canceled all unfilled short orders. Corey
First, Don, I wish you the best and hope to see you back here right away! Second, how do you guys calculate FV? I found the following: http://www.stocktrendwizard.com/fairvalue.htm http://www.programtrading.com/buysell.htm Is that useful? What do you guys use? Thanks
I have a large opening order watch list (87 stocks currently, but it varies), which I track every day. If I had placed orders for all the stocks on my list today, I would have had 23 fills, which is much higher than normal. Of the 23 fills, only 5 would have resulted in winners and 18 would have been losers... a blood bath. Fortunately, I am very selective about the stocks I play and only play those with a long track record of proven wins. It was still a rough day though. I made $0.15 gross. I'm not sure how to guard against a crazy day like today. The problem is that almost everything gapped up and then went higher, which meant that your shorts were going to lose money. Any stocks that gapped down in a strong market like today were real dogs and were likely to continue lower, which many did. Believe it or not, proportionally I had more long orders produce losers than short orders... wierd.
Fair value numbers will probably be different for everyone, because not everyone pays the same interest rate. As long as you're consistent, I don't think it matters. I use the number published by programtrading.com rather than calculate it myself. I take the current futures price (emini 5 minutes before the open) minus the previous day's cash close. I then subtract the fair value number from the difference. I take the result of that calculation and divide it into the spx cash price and express it as a percentage. This tells me how much the market is opening up or down from where it should be. I then take that percentage and multiply it by the stock's closing price, then multiplied by the stock's beta to arrive at a fair value for the stock, in other words, where it should open according to the market. Then I multiply my envelope by the stock's fair value and I arrive at my buy/sell prices. In a big gap day, I've already accounted for the gap in my fair value prices, which is why I use the same envelope everyday. With a 1% envelope, I average a 9% fill rate on my orders, and it's surprisingly consistent. The market opened up 1.62% today, the highest I've seen since I started keeping this stat (2 months), and I was filled on 13% of my orders. Corey
I used today's opening to close yesterday's open positions (I didn't "believe" the rally). Made $5,000 or so today, but most of it was recovery from yesterday's positions. Don