Don's Openings, Part 6 2003

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Don Bright, Jan 3, 2003.

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  1. chs245

    chs245

    I think every stock today with a published imbalance would have shown up in a pre-opening indicator. Not submitting orders for those stocks would have greatly reduced my overall profitability today. On triple witch, those opening indications don't convey any material information, except that there is a demand/supply imbalance and the specialist is advertising that he needs the participation of the crowd to fill the orders.
    On normal days, those indications are more rare, and could convey material information, not sure about it.
    Oliver
     
    #281     Mar 21, 2003
  2. 3 for 3 today....+$690....adjusted for pre-opening indications...(helped a bit)....and I didn't say "cancel" due to preopening indications, I said "adjust"....

    Back to it....

    Don
     
    #282     Mar 21, 2003
  3. Don or others;

    Anyone play in STT today? There was material info. Indicated pre-opening 34-37; previous close 38.5. My bid side was 34.5.
    Opened at 34. had to work some magic to get out with a tolerable loss. Only stain on a fine morning, though. Don, this was one where having indication and skewing bid according still didn't help.
    Makes you wonder about avoiding stock on a day where certain kind of news is out. It can work both ways. I guess the determining factor is ones risk tolerance.
     
    #283     Mar 21, 2003
  4. I don't trade it, but it was tough....remember, we're looking for a 75% or so success rate.....and I understand that no matter what we do, we are going to lose on a few trades....

    Don
     
    #284     Mar 21, 2003
  5. A lot of talk about the indications today. I registred that Don wrote a lot about those last year and checked it out by actually counting winners and losers (instead of taking anything for granted). I have about 800 observations and can conclude that the indications have absolutely no predictive value whatsoever. It's just as likely to be a winner/loser wherever the stock opens. The win rate is 72% regardless of where the stock opens compared to the indication. The same applies to "news" stocks. The average loser is about the same size as the average winner.

    This is from my sample of 60 stocks and I don't think it should be different in others.

     
    #285     Mar 21, 2003
  6. cashonly

    cashonly Bright Trading, LLC

    PLAY?!?! I was there. You call that playing?!?! You have a warped sense of fun!
     
    #286     Mar 21, 2003



  7. can you share the name of this stock please?


    tnx
     
    #287     Mar 21, 2003
  8. cashonly

    cashonly Bright Trading, LLC

    STT

    Don't mind giving up a stock that I'm taking off my list!
     
    #288     Mar 21, 2003
  9. Pretty nice...4 for 4 winners...+$745 (37.5 cents).....It looks like it should be a good enveloping day....back to you later...

    Don
     
    #289     Mar 24, 2003
  10. hbrob

    hbrob

    E-mini's were very far from the SPX prior to the opening; what envelope did you use????
     
    #290     Mar 24, 2003
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