I was making money with OPG's since January but recently stopped because I began scratching and then losing with them. I agree with previous posts that the OPG system is overexposed right now. Any profitable system suffers when people pile into it en masse. Also, the specialists have likely changed the way they operate to extract $ from OPG traders after Don exposed the specialists game in public. The rash of new OPG traders is a new food supply for them. And, the lower volatility and liquidity of this market cycle are factors to the extent that they decrease opening imbalances and increase specialist's hunger.
How do you explain why in professional sports, some players always get he good calls from the refs, and the rookies and scrubs don't get cut any slack?
777, I am thinking hard, real hard, my head is fuming smoke, but I still don't get the "analogy." Are you saying the market knows that it is Don in the trade and lets him out with a profit, but not the rookie? nitro
The analogy is that in the NBA, experience matters, learning the subtle nuances of the refs. Who can say whether or not Don's orders are treated as nameless and faceless orders, or if they are routed in a different manner than the "rookie" traders? Frankly, I don't see Don's orders, and cannot verify his wins and losses.....and while I am not calling him a liar.....I do call him a marketing expert with very good reason to have consistent small winners, and some would say the line between lying and the fine art of marketing and sales is nearly invisible.
All order that come in electronically are routed through the SuperDOT system. These orders appear in aggregate on the clerk's monitor, very similar to a level II screen. All the specialist knows is how much size in total he has available to him at a given level. It's all about speed. If Firm A's routing can get the order into the system faster than Firm B, then Firm A will have an advantage, and will get their orders filled first.
OK, great, the first note I read when I get back in the office, is my friend 777 walking the thin line of calling me a liar or a marketing genius.....I, of course, prefer the latter. Let me say once again, that all of these pages are monitored by our Regulators, and that I post my P&L from openings that I keep on my Excel spread sheet and are easily verified. I actually show this to those who come to Vegas. I have not read the posts leading up to that last one, but I'm sure I will. So, back to it. Got filled on 7 today, 5 winners, 2 small losers, made about $1400 (70 cents). The Specialists don't know who is doing the opening orders, they only see SLK or GS, but they do get to know who is there "helping" vs. "hindering" their efforts (this is my feeling from talking with some of them, and how they handle some of the exit orders). Smaller orders don't make an impression, but when you start seeing multiple 5,000 share orders (as is some of the bank stocks), then they actually seem to work with you). No "collusion" or anything, simply awareness....which is what we strive for in this business. BTW, 777, thanks for keeping the thread alive and well!! See you on the chat board as soon as I get caught up later in the week. Don
7 fills today. I got a little flustered again today as I started getting fills very quickly. Short EDS. -.46, this one got away from me while I was trying to manage some others. Gotta pay attention to the RED ones first. Short WMI +.04 out in the nick of time to avoid loss management. Long THC.. +.01, got rid of it as soon as I got it. Just didn't want it for some reason.. thought with the big gap down, probably something wrong there.. gave up a nice winner.. Long NSC +.07 for some reason confused this with NSM, which I knew had news. Long AZN 0.00 was bouncing around not doing much, just tossed it. Was never much there. Long HCA +.045, took a decent profit, could have had more. Long ED +.35, another one I should have been a bit more patient with.. but can't complain, gotta realize that I cannot read the future.
its not really about enveloping correctly on OO its about reading the tape after the fill. CUT losers fast and let winners run. UNFORTUNATELY, until you get extremely familiar with the stocks you trade, you will lose if you depend highly on probability. I quit OO because the end result was alot of commissions for very little return.