From what I've seen on news stocks that have a delayed opening due to an imbalance, these work only about 50% of the time. So a bit less than a stock with no news. Logic would say that it should work more of the time, since in their infinite wisdom, the specialists, company, and NYSE "officials" have taken time to discuss where the stock should open based on the size of the imbalance. And the specialist probably is participating in the opening print. During the delay, the specialist is waiting for all the orders to come in which ever way the imbalance is going. Seems like when they don't work, the specialist either didn't open the stock high or low enough, or he must be receiving MORE large orders in the same direction as the imbalance, after the opening price has a chance to settle. I usually will cancel my OPG orders on these, and watch the stock after the open, to see if it is going to work or not. Usually these stocks are the really strong or weak stocks for the day. Good trading...
Sorry, I didn't post yesterday's (loser - $1900, stupid, stupid).. But today made $2900 (1.45, just on this opening). NOW, for a "it happens to everybody" story: Long 5100 IBM at the close yesterday....sell 3100 at the close, came in with 2000 made $15,000 before the opening bell ....(what I mean by "it happens to everybody" is that I "coulda" had the whole 5100, but that is not my trading style, who am I kidding....size doesn't bother me, but overnights do). I had TXN and KrB as well, so had a "lucky" night.....must be all the good "karma" I get here on the board... So, overall, a $20K day (after a loser yesterday of $8K), so I'm heading back into the game now..... Don I'll post "bootcampers" in a bit...
Tony, keep the orders in, but adjust them for the Opening Indications on your Redi machine....I put mine at the top and and bottom third of the indicated price, that way we still participate with the Specialist... Don
9 fills, 2 long, 7 short. 7 winners 2 losers (SBC, HD) +.59 After Tuesdays lousy open I was worried about the same thing happening today so I used a 2% envelope
Thought I'd try the "breakout" strategy instead of the classic opening order strategy, given the 3% gap up we were expecting. Entered 30 orders, all buys, .3% above yesterdays close. Obviously, got no fills, since they all gapped much higher than that. Good trading all...
(Strong) suggestion: Don't do breakouts on the openings. The reason for "fading" large up openings, is to be on the same (sell) side as the Specialist, since he will open the stocks as high as he can and participate in the selling, not the buying. Breakouts can work fine intraday, but rarely work on the opening.....just trying to help!! Don
10/17: -.07, +1.95, +.08, zero, zero, zero, -.29, +.46, +1.76, -.30.... Don We discussed getting past the "I'm afraid to sell into an up market" concern.....we Want to sell when the stocks open way up....check IBM for example....only went up a nickel before dropping well. Can't get "gun shy"....if you feel uncomortable, simply lower your share size....we're looking for long term consistency here. Used 1.2 buy side, 1.0 sell side for the opening.... Don