Don's Opening's Journal....

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Don Bright, Dec 21, 2001.

  1. edge,

    How do you pick these plays?
     
    #21     Dec 27, 2001
  2. The edge

    The edge

    Done some research on which ones that comes out more positive than others. No safe bet, but still an "edge". I calculate fair value for "my" stocks, then place orders long below and short above. You use this approach? By the way, here is my other stocks which I don't trade yet, but keep in a watchlist, this is their outcome for today:

    IGT-LOOSER
    CI-WINNER
    ABT-WINNER
    MRK-WINNER
    HD-LOOSER
    JPM-WINNER
    GM-Still "in" there

    Target for P/L is a quarter either way.
     
    #22     Dec 27, 2001
  3. The edge

    The edge

    Last one for today just got hit, GM with target at 48,20, entered opening short at 48,45.
     
    #23     Dec 27, 2001
  4. PitBull

    PitBull

    How do you calculate the fair value? :confused:
     
    #24     Dec 27, 2001
  5. Last few days:

    27th = +600
    26th = - 80
    24th = + 820

    Lowered envelope to .8 due to lower fv differential to actual to get more fills. Still only 2 today (27th).
     
    #25     Dec 27, 2001
  6. The edge

    The edge

    Don,

    by envelope I guess you mean the span below and above a stock's FV? Interesting if you use .8, still use .5 myself. Tried to analyze based on .4, but the edge gets smaller even if you get hit more often. Though does it seem that the stocks that "works better" can be enveloped even at that level.

    Pitbull,

    you find FV at several sites like www.programtrading.com, CNBC, CNNfn to mention a few
     
    #26     Dec 28, 2001
  7. The edge

    The edge

    Don,

    had 27 orders*2 yesterday and still only got 2 as you did. Still good for getting into the day of trading.
     
    #27     Dec 28, 2001
  8. For the most part, we have seen that 2-6 stocks is all that we can close effectively (I know it is hard for me to watch the tape closely on more than that). The automated "closing" systems have proven to be not nearly as effective overall, so we are suggesting that people keep closing trades manually (a few exceptions of course).
     
    #28     Dec 28, 2001
  9. The edge

    The edge

    Today's plays:

    MMM, enter long at 120, stopped out at 119,75, LOOSER
    KO, enter long at 47,31, stopped out at 47,20, LOOSER

    Well, shit happens. Had many orders in today but got only 2 "hits". Seems like the action and liquidity needed for some REAL plays are lacking these x-mas days.

    Otherwise, the following stocks got hit from my watchlist which I don't trade yet:

    JPM-winner, HD-winner, IGT-winner, WAT-looser, HIG-looser, TLB-winner, TXT-looser, MU-looser, LEH-winner, FDC-winner, CAH-winner, CLS-winner, CVC-looser, AYE-winner, DCX-scratch

    From watchlist the ratio was 9 winners, 5 loosers, 1 scratch
     
    #29     Dec 28, 2001
  10. The Edge,

    I like the looks of what you're doing, but I'm not sure I fully understand it. Could you go through a calculation for one stock to illustrate it? Thanks.
     
    #30     Dec 28, 2001