Don's Openings and More for 2006

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Don Bright, Dec 30, 2005.

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  1. Arnie

    Arnie

    I'm pretty new at OO, but It helps me to know things like how often a stock gaps up/down and reverses and how much the typical MAE is and the average daily range. I use trendlines to stay in a trade. Today I had one fill in BAC and managed to stay in it from 43.65 (short) to 46.30 and 46.35. That was almost the entire move down this morning.

    As an example, BAC will reverse from the opening gap 57% of the time. The MAE on days when the open is near the high or low of the day is less than .08. So today I just put in a .10 stop (mental) and caught a nice move down.

    MER will reverse from the open 52% of the time with an MAE of less than .10
    I have found many stocks that reverse close to 60% of the time.
     
    #111     Jan 31, 2006
  2. What is MAE?


    Maximum Adverse Excursion?
     
    #112     Jan 31, 2006
  3. with people as smart as you out there it is amazing that any of us can make money...:D
     
    #113     Jan 31, 2006
  4. Arnie

    Arnie

    Yes
     
    #114     Jan 31, 2006
  5. Arnie

    Arnie

    I have learned a lot from you guys on this thread. My trading has been pretty unremarkable this month. I had some pairs on that just killed me.
     
    #115     Jan 31, 2006
  6. comfut

    comfut

    Question for Arnie,

    "MER will reverse from the open 52% of the time with an MAE of less than .10 I have found many stocks that reverse close to 60% of the time."

    What parameters did you use to define a "reversal"? ie: >.20 or
    .001%?

    Thanks
     
    #116     Jan 31, 2006
  7. Arnie

    Arnie

    If the stock opens up (+.01) and then the close is below the open. The opposite with a stock that opens down. Out of 275 days of data, MER reversed from an "up" open 79 times (29%) and from a "down" open 23%.
     
    #117     Jan 31, 2006
  8. comfut

    comfut

    Arnie,

    Thank you for that clarification, I was thinking you were saying that mer reverses over 50% of the time from an opening that is not unchanged. It is really much less than that in the way that you have defined it.
     
    #118     Jan 31, 2006
  9. 7 fills / 1000 shares each

    4 long / 3 short...+1006.00

    -.95 / +.55 %

    closed a little early...but a win is a win...system says max profit at 9:00 cst...2290.00
     
    #119     Feb 1, 2006
  10. No fills today
     
    #120     Feb 1, 2006
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