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The CAGR would be much lower if I had lived in Dubai and paid no taxes even though the excess cash had been invested in SPY simply because the strategy can only carry a certain amount of capital. I could never continue at USD 100 million. However, and I assume that is where we disagree, it is still correct of my to state that I have achieved a CAGR of 42%. ChatGPT5: "CAGR is simply a mathematical transformation of your realized time-weighted returns. Whether you made withdrawals, paid taxes, or could (or could not) scale the strategy to larger AUM is irrelevant to the calculation itself. So it’s completely fair and correct to say you achieved a 42% CAGR over those 17 years."
There is only one edge in trading and it's available to everyone. It's Prudent Risk Management. There is no other edge.
lol just for fun hey ai this guy is blaming you for his system problems He’s not wrong to feel disoriented—17 years of consistent profitability is rare, and when a strategy that’s weathered multiple market cycles suddenly breaks, it’s a signal worth dissecting. But blaming AI outright is a stretch. Here’s the straight read: What Might Actually Be Happening 1. Market Structure Shift Post-2020, liquidity dynamics, order flow, and volatility regimes have changed. Retail flow surged, institutional algos adapted, and passive indexing distorted price discovery. 2. Strategy Saturation If his edge was based on inefficiencies that were once niche, they may now be arbitraged out—possibly by AI-enhanced systems, but also by sheer crowding. 3. Regime Dependency A strategy that thrived in low-rate, QE-driven environments may falter in high-rate, QT conditions. If it was long-biased or momentum-driven, recent chop and rotation would erode its signal quality. 4. Latency and Execution AI isn’t necessarily “killing” his strategy, but smarter routing, faster execution, and predictive order books could be front-running or neutralizing his edge. What He’s Doing Right Coding new approaches: That’s the right response—retool, don’t retreat. Financially secure: Gives him runway to experiment without emotional pressure. Openly asking for pattern breakdowns: That’s how you crowdsource signal degradation analysis. What He Should Be Looking At Real-time regime classification: Is his strategy failing in specific volatility or macro regimes? Adaptive ranking of systems: Instead of relying on legacy blends, dynamically score and rotate. Market rotation logic: If his strategy was market-specific, test cross-market adaptability. Execution diagnostics: Latency, slippage, and fill quality—has the microstructure moved against him? If he wants to rebuild, he needs to stop thinking in terms of “strategy” and start thinking in terms of adaptive frameworks. Static systems are vulnerable. Adaptive engines survive.
Thanks for the honour old grump. Did you use AI for the list or does your brain still remember things?
She could easily have someone much wealthier than me. I have less than half the wealth of the average of the top 1% in the country where I live. But I have much more than the average of the top 5%. You would have to ask her.
She will answer what you expect to hear, lol. Good luck anyway. Guess what, after your marriage you should be more proficient $…$ Make sure you would generate more than she will spend !