BTW,presidents with negative net approvals have lost re-election every time(Trump,Bush,Carter ,Ford) Presidents with positive net approvals have won re-election every time
Reasons why the 2020 presidential election is deeply puzzling If only cranks find the tabulations strange, put me down as a crank https://spectator.us/reasons-why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-deeply-puzzling/ First, consider some facts. President Trump received more votes than any previous incumbent seeking reelection. He got 11 million more votes than in 2016, the third largest rise in support ever for an incumbent. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 million fewer votes than he received in 2008. Trump’s vote increased so much because, according to exit polls, he performed far better with many key demographic groups. Ninety-five percent of Republicans voted for him. He did extraordinarily well with rural male working-class whites. Trump grew his support among black voters by 50 percent over 2016. Nationally, Joe Biden’s black support fell well below 90 percent, the level below which Democratic presidential candidates usually lose.
https://spectator.us/reasons-why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-deeply-puzzling/ Trump increased his share of the national Hispanic vote to 35 percent. With 60 percent or less of the national Hispanic vote, it is arithmetically impossible for a Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. Bellwether states swung further in Trump’s direction than in 2016. Florida, Ohio and Iowa each defied America’s media polls with huge wins for Trump. Since 1852, only Richard Nixon has lost the Electoral College after winning this trio, and that 1960 defeat to John F. Kennedy is still the subject of great suspicion.
False. National Black voters Biden 91% Trump 8% https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=US
https://www.freep.com/story/news/po...troit-michigan-vote-election-2020/6168971002/ It was one of many such efforts across the region that pastors and civil rights leaders say paid off in victories for Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, and other Democrats. The Black vote, particularly in Detroit, played a key role. Biden won the city of Detroit with 94% of the vote while Trump received 5%, according to the city of Detroit's election results.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-increases-share-black-hispanic-vote-1544698 According to surveys conducted by Edison Research and published by The New York Times, Trump has boosted his share of the Black vote by 4 percentage points since 2016, when just 8 percent of Black voters supported him.
https://spectator.us/reasons-why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-deeply-puzzling/ Another anomaly is found in the comparison between the polls and non-polling metrics. The latter include: party registrations trends; the candidates’ respective primary votes; candidate enthusiasm; social media followings; broadcast and digital media ratings; online searches; the number of (especially small) donors; and the number of individuals betting on each candidate. Despite poor recent performances, media and academic polls have an impressive 80 percent record predicting the winner during the modern era. But, when the polls err, non-polling metrics do not; the latter have a 100 percent record. Every non-polling metric forecast Trump’s reelection. For Trump to lose this election, the mainstream polls needed to be correct, which they were not. Furthermore, for Trump to lose, not only did one or more of these metrics have to be wrong for the first time ever, but every single one had to be wrong, and at the very same time; not an impossible outcome, but extremely unlikely nonetheless.
https://spectator.us/reasons-why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-deeply-puzzling/ The following peculiarities also lack compelling explanations: 1. Late on election night, with Trump comfortably ahead, many swing states stopped counting ballots. In most cases, observers were removed from the counting facilities. Counting generally continued without the observers 2. Statistically abnormal vote counts were the new normal when counting resumed. They were unusually large in size (hundreds of thousands) and had an unusually high (90 percent and above) Biden-to-Trump ratio 3. Late arriving ballots were counted. In Pennsylvania, 23,000 absentee ballots have impossible postal return dates and another 86,000 have such extraordinary return dates they raise serious questions 4. The failure to match signatures on mail-in ballots. The destruction of mail-in ballot envelopes, which must contain signatures
https://spectator.us/reasons-why-the-2020-presidential-election-is-deeply-puzzling/ 5. Historically low absentee ballot rejection rates despite the massive expansion of mail voting. Such is Biden’s narrow margin that, as political analyst Robert Barnes observes, ‘If the states simply imposed the same absentee ballot rejection rate as recent cycles, then Trump wins the election’ 6. Missing votes. In Delaware County, Pennsylvania, 50,000 votes held on 47 USB cards are missing 7. Non-resident voters. Matt Braynard’s Voter Integrity Project estimates that 20,312 people who no longer met residency requirements cast ballots in Georgia. Biden’s margin is 12,670 votes 8. Serious ‘chain of custody’ breakdowns. Invalid residential addresses. Record numbers of dead people voting. Ballots in pristine condition without creases, that is, they had not been mailed in envelopes as required by law