https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...ack-voices-for-trump-african-american-polling Democrats won the black vote by “only” a 90 percentage point margin in 2018 House races down from 93 percent in the 2016 presidential. Obviously that’s still a huge landslide. But the direction of the shift is striking. House Democrats in 2018 did 7 percentage points better than Hillary Clinton with non-college whites and 10 percentage points better with white college grads on the path to a popular vote edge of 7 percentage points rather than 2. A similar pattern is observable in specific key races. In Georgia, for example, Stacy Abrams’s much-touted efforts to increase minority turnout were largely successful and the electorate was less white than the state saw in 2016 or 2014. But in terms of voters’ choices, Abrams did better than Clinton with Georgia’s white population but worse with black voters.
You are discounting turnout.Twice as many black people turned out in 2018 compared to 2014.More black voters turn out for Abrams than Clinton.More black voters voted for Doug Jones than Obama 2012 .The ass kickings republicans have been taking since Trump has been elected is largelyin part because of black voters https://www.npr.org/2017/12/13/5705...african-americans-propel-jones-to-alabama-win 'Black Votes Matter': African-Americans Propel Jones To Alabama Win December 13, 20175:37 PM ET When Sen.-elect Doug Jones, D-Ala., addressed his cheering supporters Tuesday night in Birmingham, Ala., one of his first shout-outs went to his African-American supporters. As well it should have. Black voters made up 29 percent of the electorate in Alabama's special Senate election, according to exit polling. That percentage is slightly more than the percentage of Black voters in the state who turned out for Barack Obama in 2012. And a full 96 percent of Black voters in Alabama Tuesday supported Jones, including 98 percent of African-American women. "Black women led us to victory. Black women are the backbone of the Democratic party," Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez tweeted Wednesday morning, "and we can't take that for granted. Period." https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/the-blue-wave-was-propelled-by-black-voters-survey-finds Black Voters Propelled Blue Wave, Study Finds African-Americans increasingly associate GOP with Trump, racist rhetoric Democratic wins in the 2018 midterms were driven largely by African American voters — particularly black women — who increasingly associate the GOP with President Trump’s perceived hostility toward people of color and immigrants, according to an analysis released Monday. The report by the NAACP, the racial justice nonprofit Advancement Project, and the political action group African American Research Collaborative found that across competitive elections 90 percent of black voters supported Democratic House candidates, compared to 53 percent of voters overall. It also found 91 percent of black women, 86 percent of black men and 50 percent of white voters believe Trump and the GOP are using toxic rhetoric to divide the nation. “This poll dispels the myth of black voter apathy,” said Judith Browne Dianis, Advancement Project executive director. “Clearly black voters are not only engaged, but they are central to the resistance against Trumpism.” Get-out-the-vote campaigns organized by the NAACP, the Advancement Project and other groups drove record numbers of black voters to the polls, said Jamal Watkins, NAACP vice president of engagement. Nearly twice as many African-Americans voted Nov. 6 as in the 2014 midterm cycle http://www.louisianaweekly.com/85-percent-of-blacks-want-trump-impeached/ 85 percent of Blacks want Trump impeached 18th November 2019 By Richard Prince Eighty-five percent of African Americans say President Trump should be impeached, the highest of any ethnic group, according to the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. Fifty-seven percent of Hispanics feel the same way, the poll shows. However, only 41 percent of whites do, according to the survey, meaning that the common conclusion that the country is evenly divided on the impeachment issue is possible only because of the intense anti-Trump feeling among people of color. “A year out from the 2020 election, we don’t have 2020 vision, but the general dynamics of the race are coming into focus: a sitting president below 50 percent, who receives credit on the economy, speaks his mind for better or worse, but who most Americans do not trust and who is facing an impeachment inquiry that a majority of Americans support,” a summary of the poll said. “Taken together, these suggest a tough road ahead for Donald Trump…” Jeff Horwitt, a senior vice president at Hart Research and Associates, which conducted the survey for the two news organizations, told Journal-isms that the sample sizes for Asian Americans and Native Americans were too small to be valid. He gave the racial breakdown as follows: Impeach/Not impeach • White – 41 percent/54 percent • African-American – 85 percent/nine percent • Hispanic – 57 percent/40 percent “The raw number of interviews among all adults are 117 African Americans and 99 Hispanics,” Horwitt messaged. The poll was conducted from Oct. 27 to 30, among 900 adults of all races, with additional interviews to get to 414 interviews among Democratic primary voters, the survey takers said. The results for Blacks and Latinos clearly contradict Trump’s frequent boasts that people of color support him. Trump made a typical claim in July when he insulted the majority-Black city of Baltimore. “What I’ve done for African Americans, no president, I would say, has done. Now, I’ll say this: they are so happy, because I get the calls,” he told reporters as he left for a speech in Virginia that was boycotted by Black state lawmakers, as Daniel Dale reported July 30 for CNN. “They are so happy at what I’ve been able to do in Baltimore and other Democratic-run, corrupt cities.” Trump continued later: “The African-American people have been calling the White House. They have never been so happy [at] what a president has done. Not only the lowest unemployment in history for African-Americans, not only opportunity zones for, really, the biggest beneficiary the inner city, and not only criminal justice reform. But they’re so happy that I pointed out the corrupt politics of Baltimore. It’s filthy dirty. It’s so horrible. And they are happy as hell.” At a rally in New Mexico in September, Trump claimed, “We are working night and day to deliver a future of limitless opportunities for our nation’s Hispanic-American citizens. . . . Nobody loves the Hispanics more. We love our Hispanics, get out and vote,” Bess Levin reported Sept. 17 for Vanity Fair. Trump also said, “At the center of America’s drug crisis, this is where the Hispanics know it better than anybody. People said, ‘Oh, the Hispanics won’t like a wall.’ I said, ‘I think they are going to love it.’ You know why? Because you understand it better than other people, but at the whole center of this crisis is the drugs that are pouring in, and you understand that when other people don’t understand it.” https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/4...ck-voters-choose-any-given-2020-democrat-over Poll: Overwhelming majority of black voters back any 2020 Democrat over Trump 10/7/2019 An overwhelming majority of black voters — 85 percent — said in a new Hill-HarrisX poll that they would choose any Democratic presidential candidate over President Trump. The survey, which was released on Monday, found this sentiment to be particularly true among black voters along partisan lines. Ninety-eight percent of black voters who identify as Democrat, and 72 percent of those who identify as independent said they would back whoever ultimately becomes the Democratic nominee over Trump. Just 12 percent of black voters who identify as Republican said the same.
Those are obviously some shitty polls.Rasmussen often has Trump over 50 although he has never gotten 50 % in Gallup or aggregate polling.Emeson has Trump beating Biden although 9 other polls has Biden up by an average of +10 If Trump had 34% black approval a democrat wouldn't have won a Louisiana Governors race 3 weeks ago How John Bel Edwards won the Louisiana Governor's race Author: Chris McCrory Published: 1:41 PM CST November 17, 2019 "John Bel Edwards won with African American votes and African American turnout," political analyst Ron Faucheux said. "The 51% that Republicans got combined in the primary fell to 49% in the runoff, and that was largely due to increased African American turnout." Edwards spent much of his time in the closing days of the race in predominantly-black areas, trying to bring more black voters to the polls. During the last week of the campaign, Mayor LaToya Cantrell stumped for the incumbent governor. "This race really proved to be rural vs. urban, and Governor Edwards really performed so well in all of the urban areas," said pollster and analyst Greg Rigamer. The strategy worked overwhelmingly. By the time final results came in Saturday night, Edwards had secured about 99% of the African American vote, according to WWL-TV's election analysis By 9:45 p.m., WWL-TV called the election for Edwards because 93% of returns had come in, and the majority outstanding were from predominantly black districts, which had broken universally for the Democrat."
B1 doesn't understand that. I showed him those odds before. I think he thinks that Biden for example has a 12% chance of winning. Or would get 12% of the vote. Who knows. B1... what say you? You see the "party" odds. I fail to see how you say those are a red/black roulette wheel bet. One party is gonna win... right now the money is betting its gonna be a Dem.
Indeed B1s2 doesn't seem to understand that the current democrat odds includes them winning the democrat primary plus the general election while the bet for Trump is only for the general election since he is already the nominee.A bet on Biden winning the presidency is also a bet on Biden winning the primary. Picking who will win the democrat primary is a tougher bet than the general imo and that is included in B1s2s odds.Once the democrat primary is over the democrat will shoot ahead of Trump because picking the democrat nominee is no longer factored into the odds.
Yeah it's irrelevant what Trump's GOP popularity as it's a minority demographic. Trump was elected bc he won all the small dirt-states with high EC to population ratios. https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.n...450119297/2008votersperelector.pdf?1450119297 Biden, nationally, and in a crowded field, is still polling 10-13 points ahead of Trump. It will hit 15 points once Biden wins the nomination (or Trump has him killed).
[underlining is mine] You obviously did not do well in your statistics class or you would have immediately recognized that the source being quoted by Vox had too little knowledge of statistics to justify the words "only" or "striking." This is the kind of journalistic hyperbole we should all recoil from. Statistically a relative shift of 0.032 is no shift either way based on the uncertainty usually accompanying such estimates.