f the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for? % US Republican Donald Trump 45 Democrat Elizabeth Warren 43 Not sure 13 https://www.zogbyanalytics.com/news...sanders-half-of-voters-silently-support-trump
If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Pete Buttigieg, who would you vote for? % US Republican Donald Trump 45 Democrat Pete Buttigieg 42 Not sure 14 https://www.zogbyanalytics.com/news...sanders-half-of-voters-silently-support-trump
---and , this is the best one of all----even among Trump haters nearly half agree with him on some issues!!! This is really looking bad for Dems! Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: even though I tell people I do not approve of Donald Trump, I personally agree with him on certain issues. % US Strongly agree 22% Somewhat agree 27% Somewhat disagree 16% Strongly disagree 36% https://www.zogbyanalytics.com/news...sanders-half-of-voters-silently-support-trump
Mr Trump is also at 48% approval in the Rasmussen poll. This is a great number given what we just learned in the Zogby polling about people silently supporting the president.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vo.../23/20829686/trump-zogby-poll-approval-rating Trump’s new favorite poll inflates his approval rating by about 10 points Zogby, which Trump has repeatedly touted this week, was once described as “the worst pollster in the world.” Amid signs that the economy is slowing, reputable polls show President Donald Trump’s approval rating sagging. Trump responded this week by repeatedly trumpeting a disreputable Zogby poll that pegs his approval rating at 51 percent. Trump, who this week referred to himself as “the chosen one,” seems constitutionally unable to accept the fact he isn’t as popular as he believes himself to be. And so his go-to move in times like this is to lash out at the media and cherry-pick data that paints himself in the most favorable light. “This despite the Fake News and Polls!” Trump tweeted on Friday morning, alluding to the Zogby number on Twitter for the second time this week. Zogby, however, is not a reliable pollster. That’s because the firm, which skews to the right and which FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver once described as the “worst pollster in the world,” isn’t transparent about its methodology. This problem is apparent in the polling Trump has repeatedly touted this week. The “Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology” page merely notes that Zogby “conducted an online survey of 897 likely voters in the US,” but doesn’t detail how the sample was chosen. And given how out of step its findings about Trump’s approval rating are with other polls, it appears Zogby’s sample contains more Trump supporters than a firm would find in one that’s truly representative of the electorate. “Zogby Analytics has a track record of remarkably inaccurate preelection polls,” Stanford University professor Jon Krosnick told the Atlantic when Trump was touting Zogby polls in October 2015, noting that the shabby performance was a result of nonrandom sampling. Trump’s approval rating is actually much lower than 51 percent Zogby’s poll in an extreme outlier. A CNN survey released on Wednesday pegged Trump’s approval rating at 40 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator pegs it at 42 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. RealClearPolitics’ poll average has it at 43 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. Zogby, by contrast, pegs Trump’s disapproval rating at just 47 percent. Trump will have a difficult time winning a second term if his approval numbers remain mired at 40 percent or just above. A Fox News poll conducted earlier this month illustrated that dynamic — it found Trump polling below 40 percent in head-to-head matchups with each of four current frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Trump was asked about the Fox News polling during his vacation-ending media availability on Sunday. His response spoke volumes. While Trump’s surprising victory in 2016 might give him some basis for skepticism, he didn’t even seem interested in grappling with the implications of the poll. Instead, he flatly dismissed it, saying “I don’t believe it” because “every place I go we have lines outside.” Trump at another point suggested that Fox News — which devotes hours of its programming each day to defending him — is part of a conspiracy to bring him down. “Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox,” he said. “There’s something going on at Fox, I’ll tell you right now. And I’m not happy with it.” Trump habitually dismisses polling that reflects poorly on him — even when it comes from his own campaign When internal Trump campaign polling that showed the president lagging behind Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden in key battleground states leaked to the media in June, Trump responded in much the way he has this week — by tweeting out a disreputable poll from Rasmussenshowing his approval rating at 50 percent. As Philip Bump detailed for the Washington Post on Friday, Trump has in fact never tweeted a poll that shows his approval rating anything below 5 points above his RealClearPolitics average: Trump has tweeted about his approval rating more than 40 times as president, either citing numbers he sees or retweeting other people. His number is always higher than the RealClearPolitics average, by anywhere from 5 to 10 points. (On average, his numbers are about 7.6 points higher, if you were wondering.) But even for Trump, who cherry-picks whatever numbers he wants from whichever polls come to his attention, his approval rating hasn’t really moved much. Over the span of those 42 tweets, Trump’s approval has never been lower than 45 and never higher than 53 percent. In RealClearPolitics’ average, Trump is never been above 46 percent — and never below 37 percent. Perhaps not coincidentally, Trump disclosed at one of his rallies last year that his theory of polling is that mainstream polls underestimate his approval by about 10 percentage points because people don’t want to publicly admit they support him. “Some genius analyst said, ‘but he’s got at least 10 percent of the people that don’t want to say they’re voting for him.’ And you know what I say to that — we’ll take ’em anyway,” Trump said. “Whatever it takes.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again/ The Worst Pollster in the World Strikes Again By Nate Silver Dirty little secret: I sometimes write material in the late evening that will be posted the following morning. This is one of those instances. The early word, however, is that a Zogby poll to be released today will show Barack Obama’s presidential approval numbers at around 50-50. As of this writing, the Pollster.com averagehas Barack Obama’s numbers at 59.3 percent approve and 33.8 percent disapprove; the Real Clear Politics averageis slightly more favorable to Obama, at 61.2 percent approve and 30.5 percent disapprove. So a Zogby poll that put Obama’s numbers at roughly 50-50 would be a significant outlier. Outliers are nothing new, however, when it comes to Zogby polls. They are, in fact, the rule and not the exception. Let me qualify this a bit: Zogby International conducts two types of polls. One type are conventional telephone polls. Zogby’s telephone polls, while prone to somewhat wild fluctuations and subject to their share of erratic results (such as predicting a 13-point win for Barack Obama in the California primary; Obama lost by 9 points), are actually not terrible, and did fairly well on November 4th. Zogby, however, also conducts Internet-based polls. These polls are conducted among users who volunteer to participate in them, first by signing up at the Zogby website (you can do so yourself here) and then by responding to an e-mail solicitation. These Internet polls, to the extent they rely on voluntary participation, violate the most basic precept of survey research, which is that of the random sample. And as you might infer, they obtain absolutely terrible results. Because I’m writing this post ahead of time, I’m not 100% certain that the particular poll in question is an Internet poll. Zogby, which is probably aware of the poor reputation of its Internet polls, has begun to go to some length to conceal their origin, usually reserving notification that the poll was conducted online for the fine print. However, I’m about 99.8% certain that this is an Internet poll, as allof the polling that Zogby has recently conducted on Presidential approval have been of the Internet variety. And that polling, by the way, has produced some very strange results: in an Internet pollconducted from January 22-26, for example, in the immediate aftermath of Barack Obama’s inauguration, Zogby had Obama’s job approval at 52/29, while the average of polls from five other agencies (Gallup, Hotline, Rasmussen, FOX and Democracy Corps) conducted at the same time put the numbers at avergae of 62/19. Let’s take a look at the track record of Zogby’s Internet polling. Zogby conducted his last series of Internet polls for last year’s Presidential election in mid-October. He missed 3 of 11 states, and was off on the final margin by an average of 5.4 points. These are not good results — the average miss on election day among all presidential polls in these states was around 2,5 points; Zogby Interactive’s average error was twice that. And Zogby is probably fortunate that he confined his polling to these 11 states only. When he had conducted a broader series of Internet polling back in June, it had produced some truly head-scratching results: Note that Zogby had Barack Obama winning states such as Arkansas, Arizona and South Carolina, results which no other pollster saw at any point during the election cycle. He also had Obama polling within 5 points of John McCain in Oklahoma, which Obama would go on to lose by 31 points, and Tennessee, which he’d lose by 15. Did the Zogby Internet polls just have a bad year? No. If anything, their performance was much improved from 2006, when Zogby had surveyed a wider number of contests. Below are the Internet polls that Zogby put out on October 27, 2006 in advance of that year’s senatorial elections. His average miss was 8.7 points, including six misses of 10 points or more, and one miss of almost 30 points: Zogby’s gubernatorial polling that year was similarly error-prone. His Internet polls missed the margin in 19 gubernatorial contests by an average of 7.7 points, and he called 5 of the 19 election wrong, including a couple of states (like Arkansas, Colorado and Wisconsin) where the outcome was never in much doubt. All told, between 48 contests that he’s surveyed over the past two election cycles, Zogby’s Internet polls have been off by an average of 7.6 points. This is an extreme outlier with respect to absolutely anyone else in the polling community. These Internet polls, simply put, are not scientific and should not be published by any legitimate news organization, at least not without an asterisk the size of an Alex Rodriguez steroidal syringe. But I’ll bet you that Matt Drudge already has the siren cued up by now.
Note that Zogby had Barack Obama winning states such as Arkansas, Arizona and South Carolina, results which no other pollster saw at any point during the election cycle. He also had Obama polling within 5 points of John McCain in Oklahoma, which Obama would go on to lose by 31 points, and Tennessee, which he’d lose by 15.