I just tossed that out as an example. But it actually makes my point yet again, ie. you can develop all sorts of theories based on your data analysis but in the end it depends on what your opponent looks like. Maybe Marco is not strong, but he sure as hell is based on who your clown might put up against him.
Dems can't do worse than Biden,and even he won by 7 million votes when facing a party with a sitting President with horrendous approval ratings.
Meh.. You are trying to find a formula that fits all situations. I have all sorts of previous history analysis that shows why Trump would never win the primary as an outsider and his political future is dead in the water. All fine an dandy thinking....until it isn't. And yes Biden had negative approval ratings but the dems had enough hunger for a new candidate that if you had run an open primary and got someone strong - instead of appointing Kamala - you could have beat Trump. So in that case, you still would have had a sitting president with a negative approval rating but a stronger candidate who could have won. Which runs contrary to your theory. You are saying that no dem candidate who was in Kamala's shoes regardless of how good could have won because that candidate's future was controlled by Joe's low ratings. Sorry but the election had the potential to be very close if you had not picked another shit candidate. OK . enough of that for me. Run AOC or Mamdani or whatever and have your fun. While it lasts.
Unlike negative presidential approval ratings there are no 100% odds in primary polling or showing Trump couldn't win the primary.
Ill add that nearly all Democrat candidates supported the genocide in Gaza and that alone was likely to cause Democrats to lose in 2024 no matter the candidate.In the primary over 100000 registered Democrats voted non commited in MI over Gaza and over 50000 voted non commited in WI.Trump won MI by less than 100000 votes and WI by less than 50000.Gaza alone would have likely caused any Israel supporting Democrat to lose those states and likely other states as well.
I remember in 2008 many if not most thought it would be disaster if The Democrat Party were to nominate a Black man as their nominee, and thought it would be the biggest political disaster ever if they did so after Hillary released the Rev Wright tapes.But George Bush had negative approval ratings on Gallup,and this extremely racist country picked a Black man that was a member of Rev Wrights church over a Party with a President with negative approval rating.Stormfront was up at that time and on election night I went to the site how the Klan members were reacting to The US electing a Black man as President,and to my surprise their were Stormfront members who admitted they voted for Obama because of how bad Bush fucked the country up or how bad their personal financial situations had become under Bush.Trumps current apprval ratings are worse than Bushs was in 2008 and will be even worse in 2026 and 2028. This country also picked a 34xs convicted felon under criminal Federal indictment who was impeached twice and attempted a coup and is a racist with over 25 accusations of sexual crimes over a Party with a President with negative approval ratings,if that guy can win any Democrat will in 2028.
Not to toot my own horn but I also picked the Black guy to win,even though many thought I was nuts https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/mccain-forced-to-defend-obama.140826/#post-2119132 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/obama-faring-badly-among-racists.134775/#post-2041258 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/i-predict-an-assasination.118419/page-4#post-1803616 Current predictions I can wait to gloat over Democrats will win the 2025 NJ Governors race Democrats will win the 2025 VA Governors race Democrats will win the 2026 House race Democrats will win the 2028 House race Democrats will win the 2028 White House race