Sir, if you read my words carefully as per my earlier remarks and not taken liberties to skewer my intent, you would plainly see that I am not "badmouthing" anyone. In fact, I stated that I thought Mr. Miller was a decent fellow and tried hard to put together a good course. I have heard good reports about his integrity. However, I DID criticize his methodology and you are not addressing that criticism with any constructive offerings. I really don't want to play one-upmanship or verbal games here with you; I am far too busy studying to be a successfull trader and actually, doing quite well after being in the business five years. But for clarities sake, I will repeat my criticisms: I don't see how a moving average crossover system---as explained in the Miller DVD which I intently and objectively studied---can lead to an overall successfull outcome, especially given the many non-trending, whipsaw markets that mitigate such systems which, by the way, are really nothing new. Adding Bollinger Bands to establish range doesn't appear to increase the effectiveness of such a MA crossover system from the backtesting I have done on 3 months worth of ES data. Perhaps my backtesting is wrong. But I'm not willing to put my cash in the line in real time to prove that point. How do you constructively address the above criticisms?
You've watched only a small part of the IC program if you haven't had access to his 1 1/2 year of weekly video meetings where he discusses his methodology in minute detail -- which is far too involved for me to even touch on here. Except -- if you think he uses a moving average crossover to initiate trades, you just don't know his material. In his earlier stuff he indeed did take some trades on the 5/15sma crossover, but his day-to-day trading now -- and that reflected in his 'complete' IC program, moved away from that approach. He is a 'pull-back' trader for probably 90% of his trades -- NOT a moving average crossover trader. Criticize Don Miller all you want but you won't really know what you are talking about until you've viewed the entire 75 or so hours of interactive video that followed the initial 3 CDs of material.
thanks for the reply. It was fair enough. But let me see if I'm understanding this. In 2003 when 'Trading E-Minis for A Living' was released, Don was primarily advocating an MA crossover system, but now 4 years later, with the release of his newest and biggest version, he's a "pullback trader"? If so, then those who were unfortunate enough to have spent 700 dollars on the first course should now buy the more successfull course, the real deal at roughly 900 a pop? If the first course isn't the correct one, then how exactly was Don "making a living" prior to 2007 being released? I'm not questioning whether the latest Inner Circle videos are good as you seem to like them. But I would suggest that if they are *that* much of an improvement and are the real deal, then the original buyers be issued a rebate or be given a substantial discount on purhcase of the latest material.
Don's a straight up guy with a sound methodology... There is absolutely nothing wrong with his methodology (be it MA crossover or pullback or WHATEVER) if it fits your personality... by tweaking it to fit your personality, ANY positive expectancy method can be consistently executed for long-term profits... The problem, all too often, is not the vendor's method but whether the method is compatible with the purchaser's personality...
I couldn't agree more, Candletrader. Successful traders find what works for 'them.' One's approach definitely must be compatible with one's personality and risk tolerance; if not, it simply won't work. It typically takes traders many years to find their niche -- if they find it at all; most don't. In all of Don's courses he had at least three entries a trader could choose depending on personality/risk-profile: a simple cross of the 15sma, a 5/15sma cross, and a pullback to the 15sma. He preferred the pullback to the 15sma entry as having the least risk -- since the stop was the 15sma -- so very little risk on the trade. I think if you will take the time to review any of his course materials, even from as early as 2002 -- and even the 3-CD introduction to the IC program, you will find this to be the case. He has always taught that pullbacks are the best set-ups, but offered the other two entry alternatives for traders whose personality/risk profiles were not compatible with taking pullback entries. Sorry if I confused you on the entry issue. Don is a very sophisticated trader who establishes a market bias using multiple time frames and scales into and out of positions during price pullbacks based on his reading of the market bias -- something easy enough to do if you've watched and listened to him every week for a year and a half.
There's nothing complicated or sophisticated about entering a position on a pullback to a moving average. Traders have been doing that since the beginning of time. Todd Mitchell uses Keltner bands; Jean Yu uses 20 period moving averages; BlackJack Trader uses opening range and moving average pullbacks; Larry Connors, Tony Crabel have all advocated pullbacks etc. etc. ad infitum. Many traders, myself included, use multiple time frames and fractals to get the "bigger picture." All well and good. Where it becomes a problem is when those moving averages are the forerunners of whipsaws which are difficult, if not impossible to predict and that was my earlier point; whipsaws happen as much if not more so than trending markets do. In the CD examples I studied, there were plenty of opportunities to enter on pullbacks and I can see how *those examples* would be profitable. But you will encounter a dozen days in any given month where there aren't such clear or ideal opportunities.
That is why he uses multiple time frames -- to increase probability of a favorable bias in the direction of the trade. Seems like you still do not understand. This is my last post on this topic.
According to his blog, in 2008 he made 1.6 million by trading almost 600K contracts. That is an incredibly low $3 per contract gain. So even if you trade exactly the same way as he does, unless you have his commission (he owns a seat) you wouldn't make the same amount of money.... http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/ " I traded 586,184 ES contracts in 2008,"