Dollar Up, Market Down, The Message Is... Read To Find Out

Discussion in 'Trading' started by riskfreetrading, May 7, 2008.

  1. Here is what I think the message of the markets is/going to be:

    1. Stock market down because of recession/earnings. Fed does not have much room to cut more.
    2. Other countries will cut rates to fight spreading recession, causing interest rate differential between dollar world and non-dollar world to shrink. This is bullish for the dollar (similar to dividend increase in stocks).
    3. Point 2. will lead to further strength of the dollar because of momentum in currency pairs created by dollar bulls (change of trend in favor of the dollar), and money running to safety to USA and buying of assets/bonds.
    4. Points 1. to 2. will cause commodities to be less in demand, and therefore a reduction in their perceived price will follow. This will translate to weaking in futures prices, helped with a strengthning dollar. Once the down trend is established, the bears (and their aunts) will take care of the bear trend in commodities.

    The first wave: dollar up, and market down. Commodities afterwards with possible sharp corrections as a beginning to disorient the bulls before the kill.

    Long dollar/short foreign currencies, short US equities and international, and start shorting commodities once a top is comfirmed, etc.

    Your thoughts folks on the message, and the best vehicles to play this game.

    PS: PM me if you have questions/suggestions/etc that cannot be discussed here. I understand that not all thoughts can be written down here.
  2. Now that we have hindsight, the above vision is a reality. The chain is breaking/changing direction exactly as forecast :p
  3. so far so good
  4. thanks!