I want to believe this, but a few points don't jive: 1. Russia's recent clamoring for SDR's as a new reserve currency (pointless but vocal) 2. China's veiled threat against quant easing. Chinese are buying commodities because they won't buy agencies, don't get anything for Treasuries except currency risk, and have been restricted in purchasing significant shares in equities (CNOOC/Conoco) 3. Persistent weakness in the consumer sector - where do you see the 'green shoots'? There will not be a consumer recovery, and the liquidity provided will not reach the end user. The low end of the market is tapped out and can't borrow or spend. The high end of the market is paralyzed by collapsing housing values and anaemic equity recovery, combined with sub 1% interest paid on demand deposits. And everyone is fearful of unemployment. So, aside from oil being warehoused offshore in tankers (just like adding to the SPR in the last run-up; notice how nicely that correlates to the rise in oil BTW), how is there going to be inflation introduced into the system? And you can't push oil up too high without choking out all the lower wage workers - saw that happen to my employees once gas rolled above $3 a gallon. The liquidity trap has been deferred a few months, perhaps on plan to allow the banks to recapitalize, but it is only a deferral. The underlying cause (US housing, debt unsustainability, lack of income generating opportunities) remains.
Too erudite for this neighborhood, but I agree although I think the macroeconomics mean less under these contrived circumstances.