I know I'll get flack for this, guys wanting proof, reasons and stuff, but with today's close I really think the current uptrend swing in EUR/USD will continue. thoughts? btw, I had another lousy week profit wise. even took a hit. still made out with a net gain - ever so meager though. have a great weekend! fx
last time i looked at the dollar it was going vertical off a number of fib retracement lines. how did it close?
hey APC, we had a mixed close, I think. I zonked about 11AM EST so wasn't in the market at the very end but, I traded it all night to about 11AM EST and I can tell you there was strong moves on both sides of euro/$. in no way were dollar-bulls just walking with the bottom line - euro-bulls were putting up a vicious battle. I think money is definitely shifting away from the USD. I trade E/U both ways so it doesn't matter to me where it goes - my risk/reward structure is set the same either way but from what I can tell, the dollar is in a slide and has been since the middle of the week. the euro is coming back. I would not be surprised to see 1.2800+ in the near future. we got no cap right now on the euro. If I had a $100 extra bucks I'd bet anyone we're gonna break 1.2500 next week. 1.2435
I am really struggling with this whole EURUSD issue. I have a hard time understanding how the EURO is making a bullish case against the USD. With the interest rate differential now clouding my judgement even more. How can this currency keep rising? I keep asking myself this over and over and I do not have a good reason. I am not sold on the Trade Deficit story. With that said...I am a trader and here is what I see. We are in the battlegrounds of the bulls and bears which is going set up the next major leg for a few years. I see a retrace back to around 1.2900-1.3056 area and I think we will get there by the end of October or sooner. There will be great struggle to get there. Personally, I think this is being fueled by the reaction (Unknown) to the revaluation of the renminbi. Once we reach this area we will be at critical mass and then we will either ultimately go to 1.49 or so or its off to parity land. Ironically, I think the Chinese will be the very hoarders of the USD as it plays out. At my age, I am looking for this to be the great trade of my lifetime. The one that will be remembered. I just don't have a clue how it is going to happen yet. I only know that I am not writing off the USD just yet. Clear as mud to me.
WTF, you guys??? VT, very good! Somebody... give this man a CEEGAR! But... "trades of a lifetime??" Guys, sounds like you both need to get a life! You're as bad as me, no, worse! I don't see this as a trade of a lifetime. Not like they stopped making quotes or something. VT's thinking pattern is similar to mine. Maybe I can answer his cloudiness somewhat as to why anyone would want to buy euro. Speculation. Not much more than that. A sht load of money can be made on speculation. As far as the USD is concerned, well, I don't go back any further than 2-years and guys who have traded the USD for 30 years probably have more authority to speak here but having bled for 1600-points on EUR/USD short from 1.2100s to 1.3665 from Sept to Dec last year and survived I will say... *catches his breath* After that nerve-wretching 1600-point climb we unexpectedly had the quarter of last year I think the USD is being seen as just another junk currency chock-full of hidden landmines and surpising backdoors and trapdoors: A trainwreck waiting to happen. With this terrorist BS now in full-swing and Bush's clear loss blasting the USA daily in Iraq, the world has changed - at least the world of how traders view the USD. So, what else is there to say? Not like the US is gonna raise the interest rate forever, right? And not like the Euro Zone has packed its bags and called it a day. What I think we got for this next trade of a lifetime is wild, half-baked speculators versus hardened and half-mad traders. This may shape up to be the EUR/USD war of a lifetime moving thru the end of 2005 and into 2006 for sure. But, I think something new is going to have to come down on the planet to trigger the battle. Right now all we got on the table is a rapidly-fading French vote, a screwy revaluation of the yuan and fizzling interest rate hike(s) with Greenspan about ready to have a coronary on some beach in retirement with his young wife going down on him. We got oil threatening to form a super-spike but that is not enough to trigger a trading match in EUR/USD. Bush is just as dumb as ever so no change there. The catalyst may be yet to come. A severe US real estate bubble pop could trigger it - bad loans toppling a super-bank possibly - *yawn*. A terrorist bomb going off in the NY subway could do it (though I don't expect either of these to happen anytime soon). Ultimately, think of it this way, guys... I am in this trade 100% commitment with my full account behind me. If I lose, I lose it all. This is your chance to take me out. Can the euro be hiked to "1.49" this time? I may be just around the corner from getting bagged in my E/U short account at that level. then again, I may not... *busts up laughing*
anytime you find a market near the bottom of multiyear chart, in an environment that's awash in cash, in world that's wildly in flux, you have the ingredients for the "trade of a lifetime."