Dollar Sell Signals

Discussion in 'Forex' started by FJMcC, Apr 28, 2012.

  1. FJMcC


    As I am a short term oriented trader, I don't usually like to make the "big" calls. However, I am getting sell signals on the US Dollar across almost all Major counterparts. These signals are lining up on long term charts and are corresponding with spikes in selected commodities and a renewed round of Treasury purchases.

    I have no idea what to make of this other than the markets are begining to anticipate an unannounced QE3 type of operation by the FED.

    By my models, GBP, EUR, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, MXN, ZAR, pretty much you name it. If I follow it, the monthly, weekly, and dailies, are screaming "SELL THE DOLLAR".

    It is unusual, to say the least, that these long term signals are cascading over time frames, regardless of the individual risk on/Haven status of each individual pair.

    Could this be the start of a Easy Money stance by the Fed that makes the stimulus seem miniscule? An effort to stem bad numbers during the Election Cycle? I have no idea, but market seems to be signaling a seismic shift in the value of USD.

    What does all this mean for commodities, US equities, Gold?

    I think we are just stepping into a very interesting era.

    As an aside, I also got a sell signal on EUR/CHF on the weekly and monthly, right at the floor (bottom of the SNB Peg). Obviously I won't take it because I am not a hedge fund billionaire, but that seems kind of ominous. There is some scary stuff going down that noone in mainstream media/government is telling us about.
  2. Yeah, the EUR/CHF play is an interesting situation.

    In another thread, a trader with IB is being charged through the nose to carry a long on the pair just above the peg.

    My broker gives positive carry on a long, so I'd be paid to wait if I wanted to bet the peg holds... but I don't want to deal with the potential snap down it will make should the swiss ease the peg.

    Started looking into options on futures as a hedge.. but I'm last to the party there so I'm sure I'll just piss away any positive interest I get from the position on a protective put.


    The other way to play it is a straddle position with options...

    In any case, we spring in one direction or another.. all depends on how much the Swiss central bank wants to pay to keep the peg in place..