Dollar defies Fed's rate cut

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by Daal, Feb 4, 2008.

  1. Daal


  2. If the dollar does not stump, why not cut some more?
  3. Cutten


    I agree. The dollar has seen the worst fundamentals for a long time, yet it cannot make a new low, let alone make a significant move lower. With the huge surprise rate cuts, housing disaster, looming recession, profits warnings and market meltdown, the dollar should have gone through 1.50 easy and plummeted to 1.60 or even 1.70. You really have to ask, if the dollar can't fall under these conditions, what kind of news would it take to cause significant new lows?

    The dollar is currently just above all-time lows versus the Euro. This is IMO a pretty good risk/reward opportunity to get short Euros. Risk 2 cents and potentially make 10+ over the next year or so.
  4. Daal


    trichet will have to throw the towel eventually, hopefully this will lead to the 'first change in direction' panic on the euro and it will sell off like mad.
  5. Daal


    price action couldn't be any stronger. +1% on recessionary ism, dollar looking good
  6. So far, the dollar has been showing strength despite all these interest rate cuts. Even the yen is having a hard time moving up against the dollar now.

    Not trying to pick the top but I've started going short the EUR/USD futures and will continue to do so when there's some strength on the euro.

    I'm liking what I see with the recent showing of strength by the USD.
  7. Daal


    in 06 everybody and their mother were loading up on trades with high interest rate differential, inflation was considered good news because it meant hikes were coming. I think in the end of 07/08 the market might have shifted towards safety oriented pairs and ignore interest rates, this could be a new trend that would last for years and the easy $ dip buying might be yen long vs euro and the like
  8. Courtesy of forextv, monthly chart sure looks attractive for a short - perhaps towards 1.37 in the medium term?