Dollar bears will be crushed

Discussion in 'Economics' started by mtzianos, May 13, 2005.

  1. blah,blah,blah,blah,blah,blah freaking blah.
    #11     May 16, 2005
  2. privilege? yeah, our position of strength, leadership and respect just dropped into our lap, like the rice burner and college degree your daddy bought you.

    privilege, indeed.
    #12     May 16, 2005
  3. Destroyer

    Doctor, Doctor help me please, I know you'll understand
    There's a time device inside of me, I'm a self-destructin' man
    There's a red, under my bed
    And there's a little green man in my head
    And he said, "you're not goin' crazy, you're just a bit sad
    'Cause there's a man in ya, gnawin' ya, tearin' ya into two."

    Silly boy ya' self-destroyer.
    Paranoia, the destroyer

    Self-destroyer, wreck your health
    Destroy friends, destroy yourself
    The time device of self-destruction
    Light the fuse and start eruption

    (Yea, it goes like this, here it goes)
    Paranoia, the destroyer
    (Here's to paranoia)
    Paranoia, the destroyer
    (Hey hey, here it goes)
    Paranoia, the destroyer
    (And it goes like this)

    Paranoia, the destroyer
    #13     May 16, 2005
  4. From WSE:

    #14     May 20, 2005
  5. Latest TIC data

    <img src="">
    #15     May 20, 2005
  6. Notice that since Nov-2004, Japan and China have stopped increasing their US bond positions (they're just buying enough to roll-over their previous positions).

    If we believe that the hedge funds (from tax heavens like Carribean and UK Isle of Man etc) are for real (and not some covert operation of US Gov itself, as many speculate), is it really believable that it's actually funds doing carry trade, given the rate diffs (borrow 3%, lend at 4%-4.5%)?

    What other strategies could explain this buying? (+94bn since Nov04)

    Only other thing I can thing about would be a bet on a stronger USD (about which they'd have been "tipped" by bureaucrats as Turtle founder Richard Dennis said in recent TASC article ???)

    Since FCBs policy change (unless it's changed again), can we think that the leveraged hedge funds from tax heavens can actually take over the funding of the 55-70bn PER MONTH which is needed to keep USD afloat?

    Actually the amount of new debt which needed to be absorbed (from 3rd parties, as FCBs stepped down) happened to be much lower than usual during last few months, due to very strong tax receipts from US Treasury as explained in previous article. But those strong tax-receipts of Apr2005 apparently were a one-time phenomenon.

    Can we really expect to see US gov start paying down its debt from increased tax revenues AND with STRONGER (more VALUABLE) dollars ???

    Well, the lenders wouldn't mind obviously, but how likely is it?

    I mean isn;t it a little bit unfair to Americans? Afterall, those capital gains taxes on profits from stocks from the 2003-2004 "bull-market" were mostly due to dollar depreciation, rather than a real bull - see next chart.

    Similarly with "appreciation" of other assets, like real estate
    #16     May 20, 2005
  7. carribean banks ? I read somewhere thats from

    either the PPT or hedge fund hot money !

    #17     May 20, 2005
  8. Btw you have to love (monetary) inflation. US Taxpayers are paying capital gains taxes on their stockmarket profits, whereas their gains in REAL terms have been almost zero.

    Here is chart of SP500 in DollarIndex (basket of currencies). If I charted it in just EuroFX, or commodities it'd be at all time lows right now.

    <img src="">
    #18     May 20, 2005