Doing opposite of what the model says

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by Moataz Elmasry, Sep 4, 2017.

  1. algofy

    algofy

    Nice logical not, how many here understand what you wrote?
     
    #11     Sep 5, 2017
  2. algofy

    algofy

    Many roads lead to Rome...
     
    #12     Sep 5, 2017
  3. algofy

    algofy

    Yep I've tested both of these cases.
     
    #13     Sep 5, 2017
  4. My questions disregards fees and slippage. I am talking purely from a positioning perspective.

    An example I've given is if a strategy expects the price to converge to a certain value x. If such a strategy enters the wrong positions, why not use the same strategy, reverse the positions but instead expect divergence of the prices.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2017
    #14     Sep 5, 2017
  5. JackRab

    JackRab

    @Moataz Elmasry did you actually backtest a strategy that resulted in this query?

    If your strategy is mean-reverting, and that doesn't work... by what ratios doesn't it work? Never? 50/50?
    The opposite of mean-reverting is trend-following. So maybe it doesn't work on a certain timeframe, but it does on another.

    Although the phrase "the trend is your friend' certainly is thrur, that doesn't mean it always works either.... depending on stoplosses etc. Unfortunately it's not that easy....

    I think remark regarding the 'why' still holds.
     
    #15     Sep 5, 2017
  6. The reason why you lose is important.

    If for example you lose because your stops are hit all the time, the same problem can occur if you take the opposite direction.
    So doing the opposite will then always result in the same failure.
     
    #16     Sep 5, 2017
  7. Yes, I have a strategy whose premise is prices converge, but it consistently loses money. If i reverse the positions by rewriting it so that it expects divergence instead, the strategy consistently makes money.

    Your point about mean-reversion is good, maybe where I am expecting mean-reversion, I should instead consider it a trend following pattern?

    Also, can you expand on what you mean by ratios in the mean-reversion context?
     
    #17     Sep 5, 2017
  8. I've already mentioned that this is purely from a positioning perspective - fees and slippage are ignored.
     
    #18     Sep 5, 2017
  9. JackRab

    JackRab

    We need more details. Win/loss rates... how many trades are winners/losers and how much doe you win/lose.

    So you've already backtested the reverse strategy as well?
     
    #19     Sep 5, 2017
  10. JackRab

    JackRab

    @Moataz Elmasry ... you trade mainly bitcoin correct? Is that what your strategy is trading in?
     
    #20     Sep 5, 2017