Irrational Exuberance? The rally may have ended in late October. Me thinks we see a pullback soon. Just an opinion.
Take a look @ the Weekly 1441 close of the Futures! Not exactly bearish. Are they gonna pull back @ some point, of course, just pick your spots to sell 'em.
sell away; cover higher. irrational exuberance? when job #s starting going into negative territory, i'll agree with you.
If you used lagging indicators for trading the S&P for the last say 6 month's you would have had your arssss handed to you. Indicators like that are a waste! Some times there right sometime there wrong. Stick to price because price doesn't lie. And if it does, which some may argue you will know the truth a lot sooner. It amazes me how many people search for dummy indicator like RSI, CCI, STO etc. These indicators were developed for one reason only. To take trades money. All you need is PRICE! Will go into further detail if needed later on.
I never said I was selling. Just noticing something on a chart that I'll look out for. Selling without confirmation would be gambling at this point. I don't try to predict the next move, I just try to be ready for it.
The divergence technique is not 100 % reliable. No indicator that I remember examining is 100 % reliable. Sometimes SPY price decreases for a month or two, then price rallys again. I remember being fooled so many times that I stopped trying to predict future prices. Another technique that might work sometimes is the 20 day exponential moving average (EMA). If the value of the 20 day EMA is less than the value 1 month (20 sessions) ago then SPY price might be decreasing. I do not believe that any thing can reliably predict the future.
We would definitely like to hear the details. (I enjoy Price Only trading discussions) Hopefully this thread can become a great, on-topic discussion.
That RSI chart just tells us that momentum *for this timeframe* has slowed down and stalled. Doesn't mean the rally can't be resumed, doesn't mean its not gonna tank. A better (bearish) indicator is the vigorous opposition to any type of bearish talk such as the thread topic implies.
we are in a short squeeze predicated on a multi-year breakout of a consolidation. There will be no pullbacks.