The Catalyst to a our market Crashing will be linked to the UK, China etc. Thats were most of our growth now comes from.. If and when the china market POP's we drop big.
Not sure about a 2000-2002 bear market scenario...it would be unusual to see another one of those 5 years later. But a down year in 2008 or 2009 wouldn't surprise me a bit. If we finish up this year (which I think we will, even if it's nothing specatular), that's 5 up years in a row. Most winning streaks don't go on much longer than that. There was an 8-year win streak in the 80s, but it included two years (including '87) that returned less than 2% for the S&P. And that huge winning streak followed a virtually flat period for over 15 years (mid-60s to 1981). Stocks were REALLY undervalued by the early 80s...about as much as they were overvalued in 2000.
Yes we will have a big correction sometime in the future, maybe tomorrow or maybe two years from now. Who knows? I think it is most likely to come after the election. But i do distinctly recall that long before the tech bubble burst, folks, especially old-time market hands, were warning that things were way over heated and we were cruising for a bruising. Those warnings went unheeded for many many months, or was it years, while the market went up up up. Its like the folks who predict the end of the world, they will always be correct so long as they don't try to predict when. If they do that, almost all of them will be wrong. All of the crashes we have had so far were preceded by multiple warnings in the price-volume action and other signs that the market was on the verge of a cardiac arrest. I have not seen that yet, but i may have missed something, so trust your own judgment. All I saw today was a very steep pullback within a region of strong resistance on heavy volume. The market could be making a top and getting ready to tumble or it could be pulling back to garner strength for another knock at the door. In prior times if we pierced an old high by 25 S&P points we would say we have gone through the door and we are safely on the other side. But in a market where plus or minus 25 S&P pts in a day is routine, i think we have to expect a little more before we can say we've gone through. And we have only knocked twice so far.
Since a lot of people traded through 99' 00', we are all expecting that to happen again and trying to pick tops for a collapse. Wish it was that easy. Traders are a lot smarter and savvy now. With everyone trying to capitalize on tops and start shorting, you miss it just fueling higher high's. We know the economy looks like shit on paper but it doesn't matter, it's all emotion. The only way we really drop is an unforseeable event that can't be predicted catching everyone off guard. Then with the mentality that the FED will save you and just print more money and drop rates keeps the faith for the bull run. Eventually that will burn some looking for a pattern. Sure, we are due to "re-correct" and the DOW to drop 10-15% but will it?
Sweet guys. Nikkei down over 100 and the Hang Seng down 555. We'll see ya AM with the futures compounding this 3pt slide we're seein overnight. just wait till europe opens.....
10-05-07 11:12 AM Exactly right mak. Joe sixpack has a short memory, and will do anything to get rich with the least possible work. They always get sucked in at or near the top. We do have a potential double top in the making. Next week will be interesting. I love how the mkt will do the opposite of reality. I wouldn't be holding my breath for a rate cut this year though. By the time we get the next cut, the market will be lower than it is now. Just wanted mak and stock and the rest of the perma bullish crowd.....every once in a while you're dead wrong!
You can get killed in any market with a bias, it is fun to predict but be careful we all want to say ( I TOLD YOU SO ) but keep in mind the dollar is at almost all time low that makes our markets a discount to the rest of the world and you know we have an election coming soon the big boys will push this market around like rag doll, that my friends, will be where the big money is made big swings up and down the market never just goes straight down or straight up, so I have been told, LOL Don't get to bearish or to bullish it cost me to much money in the past to have a bias, just watch the charts use your indicators oh and traders look at volume on daily and interday charts that will tell you the story watch for big volume reversals it will help you guys get out of your shorts and longs as I feel we are going back to a high volatility trading period. If you want you can check out some vids on trading the futures on youtube. http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=TradePilotPro
bear? I think It'll happen near year end, when the big institutions need to sell in order to boast how well (or not ) they are doing.
someone mentioned the divergence between the stock market and the US dollar. Well, first of all, more and more people are going to buy stock (talking about big foreign investors) when the USD is cheap as they will pay less. Less and less big foreign investors are going to sell their shares when they get a lot less value for them, with the USD being cheap. I think that this stock market is being kept up by the US dollar dropping. The moment the US Dollar will come back to value vs the euro and the yen, then will be a good time to drop the pressure on stocks. just my 2 cents