We have not had anything like a capitulation eg. vix > 40 or 50. Plus the last 3 or 4 bear markets it is Fed that has been creating the turning point at the low of the bear market. When they really decide to pivot/start pumping the markets with liquidity and cutting rates. What we have been seeing recently is just front running by the market, anticipating the Fed. That hasn't worked out well for the market at all.
Markets don't crash because you personally have a massive down side bias. Valuations for a good chunk of the market are actually moderate to cheap now.
IMO what you see with the Fed pivot narrative is that our society is on autopilot from the drive for clicks from the media and that most communication is just trading nonsense information back and forth. There is no evidence of a Fed pivot in the data at all but news stories about a Fed pivot are going to get the clicks and people just share these nonsense narratives back and forth. No one wants to read about how the Fed balance sold off almost 83 billion last month even though anyone can download the data right from the Fed themselves Murray Gell-Mann was railing about this situation in 1997. Everything he says at the time stamp when this starts is orders of magnitude worse now: He is talking about books and newspapers. Fed Funds are pricing a rate cut next year DOWN to 475-500. That is what a Fed pivot here looks like but no one is going to click such a downer article.
Oh boy we ought to have a self destruct button for a dumb ass threads like this. I have never read so many wrong opinions. Christ. Van told you all 4,400!
Good Post! Van why the hell are you on this ridiculous thread. If I counted every wrong opinion in these 5 pages what number do you think I would come up with. Boy the adage a little knowledge is a dangerous thing rings true. You are a seasoned pro why the hell are you dabbling with these wanna be economists.