Does trendline work?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by GloriaBrown, Aug 17, 2019.

  1. And there you have it! Ask 5 people and you have 5 different trend lines. :)

    Could you share how it would look on your SPX Weekly, then?
     
    #381     Aug 16, 2023
    DevBru likes this.
  2. deaddog

    deaddog

    I throw a couple sma's on the chart. 10 and 30 (no reason except Weinstein book)
    watch the direction of these.
    Price is trading below the 10 but it's not the end of the week yet.
    Both 10 & 30 week sma are trending upwards.
     
    #382     Aug 16, 2023
    taowave and Laissez Faire like this.
  3. Georpe

    Georpe

    I’m of the opinion that the exact placement of a trendline (best fit, wick or close) is less important than paying attention to what price is doing relative to trend/channel lines no matter how they’re drawn. Trend lines are great for general context.

    No matter how the trend line is drawn in that chart, price was in a tight channel which means the first breakout is probably going to fail. Does that mean it was a bad/incorrect trendline when we reverse or is it giving more context?

    I’ve been traveling the last few days but it looks like price just reached the first obvious target being the middle of that trading range (ioi).

    Was it a sell signal? Yes, but if that arrow is your entry you’re also selling late on the first breakout of a tight bull channel where aggressive sell limit order traders already made a profit or are likely to take profit not too far below.

    I just glanced at a daily chart to see two nice stacked red candles overshooting a channel line based on any preferred way to draw it…
     
    #383     Aug 16, 2023
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  4. schizo

    schizo

    Well, first of all, what appears on your chart seems more like a pitchfork rather than proper trendline. Clearly those "pivot lines" on your chart are shadowing the midline. However, that midline itself is drawn haphazardly (eg. the midpoint between P0 and P1).

    That said, for a trendline to be valid, you need to connect the highest high to the next highest high (same for the lowest low). You'll need to connect at least 2 highs and lows, but more than 2 is preferable.

    Here's a simple illustration of TA, nothing magical about it. You can use 2 trendlines, as shown here, as a channel to make a prediction.

    MINE
    upload_2023-8-16_15-24-58.png

    YOURS
    [​IMG]
     
    #384     Aug 16, 2023
    PPC likes this.
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    I'd post an trendline image or two (not Andrews Pitchfork) if the date axis was made visible to .. get it right.

    I use Tom DeMark's Trendlines (with a slight twist - I base them on closing prices highest to lowest and vice versa), which are PA based no ambiguity and repeatable, along with his qualifiers.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2023
    #385     Aug 16, 2023
    PPC likes this.
  6. schizo

    schizo

    Having looked over your chart again, maybe there is reason and rhyme after all. The bottom line is connecting P0 and P2 while extending that same line to P1 at the top. So, unlike what I said earlier, I guess everything does in fact check out. :)
     
    #386     Aug 17, 2023
    PPC likes this.
  7. PPC

    PPC


    You were right in noticing that mine are pitchforks rather than conventional trendlines. :)

    I use them for number of other purposes together with other tools.

    Thanks for posting your chart. Your channel is actually identical to another chart of mine which I’ve posted earlier in the thread:
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...raders-post-your-charts-with-analysis.375661/

    Yours is Arithmetic scale, mine is Log scale, but otherwise our channel is more less the same.

    MINE:
    upload_2023-8-17_13-24-31.png

    YOURS:
    upload_2023-8-17_13-25-9.png
     
    #387     Aug 17, 2023
  8. Redneck

    Redneck

    Everything works - till it doesn't

    What defines a trader.., is knowing what to do when it doesn't

    RN
     
    #388     Aug 19, 2023
    WWarrior likes this.
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    Too late to edit above..., but I should add

    Then doing it


    Knowing and doing are two totally different skill sets

    RN
     
    #389     Aug 19, 2023
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Trendlines work, AndrewsPitchforks work, FibProjections work, VWAPs work sometimes all together:-
    ! NDX works.png
    Though it "works" better if you find them during the trading day and not on the weekend lol. ;)
     
    #390     Aug 19, 2023