Does trendline work?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by GloriaBrown, Aug 17, 2019.

  1. %%
    I thought that as 10 year chart@ first glance-OH well less= commissions that way. I like a 2oo day/200 period trendline, but sorry to say ; they dont really work, we have to do the work.
    Another big problem for some with a 200dma;
    a 200 sma,
    200ema,
    200smma,
    200wma,
    200dma,
    200lwma,
    200 priod ma................................................................ -all of those differ
     
    #91     Aug 30, 2019
    easymon1 likes this.
  2. %%
    But good guidelines; including but not limited to 200 dma...........................................
     
    #92     Aug 30, 2019
  3. easymon1

    easymon1

    mr murray t turtle,

    ". . . but sorry to say ; they dont really work, we have to do the work."
     
    #93     Aug 30, 2019
    S-Trader and murray t turtle like this.
  4. easymon1

    easymon1

    hell yeah brother 99.jpg
     
    #94     Aug 30, 2019
  5. S-Trader

    S-Trader

    Sorry for taking a while to respond, and NP -- not "rude" to ask at all. Will do my best to respond...

    ------------

    My own main interest/focus is daytrading (no overnight holds) using stocks... so that's mostly what I’ve seen directly, and am able to describe in relation to your question. And which kinda fits with your duration of interest.

    As far as narrowing it down to the specific, optimal time of focus you mentioned (< 2 hrs), I’d probably generalize “*what I’ve seen* work" under two categories (made up my own names):

    “Momo” scalpers
    Description: “Vertical" type traders who play gappers or stocks-in-play (SIPs) (due to some type of catalyst). (Note: My experience is mostly with long-side traders, although have seen others who short or play both long/short.)
    Timeframes: 1’/2’/5’ plus daily S/R
    Trade Duration: mostly 15 sec - 5 min, up to maybe 30 min
    Method: “Scalping” fast moves on momo stocks using simple TA*, simple PA** and basic Level 2/tape reading. Defensive management focused more on protecting entry and getting trade to break-even or better by locking in partial profits on way up and aggressively raising mental stop to breakeven as quickly as possible. So not very "systematic" on taking profits per se, other than PA, chart "targets" and L2.
    Product: mostly lower-priced, low-float stocks (though not exclusively -- can do pricier stuff under certain conditions)
    Tools/indicators: conventional candlesticks & volume; MAs (i-day & daily); VWAP (occasionally); Level 2/tape; other***

    Discretionary TA/PA traders
    Description: Discretionary traders who play gappers, SIPs, or stocks with 60’/daily patterns
    Timeframes: 1’/2’/5’/15’ plus 60’/daily/weekly for longer TF bias, MTF alignment and S/R
    Trade Duration: mostly 2 - 30 min (?), but up to “all day” depending on management and what stock does
    Method: Using some combination of simple TA* and simple PA** to trade stocks that have some kind of higher TF catalyst or pattern which establishes directional bias. Mostly R-based management (using technical stop) for timing and initial targets, but often trailing back portions. Methodical hard stop adjustment, either R-based or technical (e.g., pivots).
    Tools/indicators: conventional candlesticks & volume; MAs (i-day & daily); VWAP (occasionally); Level 2/tape (occasionally -- mostly for specific applications); other***

    (I was originally gonna mention “pure scalpers” as a third category, but my experience with those has been more anecdotal, second-hand (albeit from people I trust).)

    * “Simple TA" = basic S/R, trendlines, candle patterns, MAs, multiple TF alignment, etc. NOT “Bukowski-ish” patterns or “Nison/Bigalow-ish” candlesticks. Have seen some individuals seem to successfully use other indicators like RSI, MACD, etc. to help them time entries/exits.
    ** “Simple PA” = basic PA, NOT “Al Brooks”-level PA
    *** "Other" = miscellaneous factors, rules-of-thumb, etc. which provide additional (but important) context to the trade. May include: individual stock characteristics, overall market environment, market behavior, seasonal factors, time of day, etc.

    ------------

    And then of course, they do all the other (harder?) stuff right — have clearly defined plans/setups, stick to the plan/follow rules, control risk, money management, emotional management, tracking/stats, etc., etc.

    Hope this answers your question. Did you just get back from vacay in the Caribbean, lol? Like the "in-character" mode! Have a great long weekend, and stay safe in you're in the Dorian area...
     
    #95     Aug 30, 2019
    Slope Trader and easymon1 like this.
  6. %%
    They're also slow]moving averages];
    but less commissions + more profit sometimes...………………………………………………………………….
     
    #96     Sep 1, 2019
  7. Sprout

    Sprout


    Depends on the methodology.

    Similar methodologies with traders of the same skill level would produce similar charts.

    Different methodologies would produce different charts simply due to a different spectrum and level of differentiation applied by their practitioners.

    Just like:
    All surgeons are doctors, not all doctors are surgeons.

    All mothers are female, not all females are mothers.

    Rather than doubting the tool, doubt the application of it.

    A complete system can be programmed, not all programs are complete systems.
     
    #97     Sep 1, 2019
  8. So you said all of these without any stats.
     
    #98     Sep 3, 2019
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

    ms gloriabrown, long time no see 'sup



    . . . . . just so you feel at home, - drew these on a 2m chart but they're displayed on a 10m chart so that more mad stuff fits.

    nq 2019 0903.png
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2019
    #99     Sep 3, 2019
    tommcginnis likes this.
  10. Sprout

    Sprout

    Your statement is 100% true. Boolean math supports understanding the market and is based on certainty. Game theory, probabilities and statistics are based on uncertainty.
     
    #100     Sep 3, 2019