Does trendline work?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by GloriaBrown, Aug 17, 2019.

  1. Just draw some straight lines on chart and you will win money. Does that make any sense? Can you prove it works or it is a tale?
     
  2. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    I say no, especially in the modern algo-dominated markets. The burden of proof is on the trend-line believers, though. They need to either

    1) Develop and code an objective trendline system that beats the market (using standard industry metrics) in both back and forward-testing or
    2) Track the trades of a more subjective trendline-based trader using a 3rd-party auditing service and see how they perform.
     
  3. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis


    This is like a Möbius Strip of inconsistency and non sequitor. :confused: Oh, and also, it's wrong. :D
    Just what do you think algorithms are computing anyway, champ? :rolleyes:
    Take a deep breath and think about that a second. Or three. Or three hundred.


    ("He won't do it! He won't!" I knowwww. I know -- but it's not for me to make him, either. ;))
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2019
    athlonmank8 and speedo like this.
  4. Real Money

    Real Money

    Does the idea of making bets on this basis cause you fear and or anxiety?

    It should.

    The answer is that this is probably not enough and that others are doing more (much more).
    How far would you go to tilt the odds in your favor?

    The line is an attempt to aid yourself in determining when the trend is cheap or expensive. It also shows price relative to trend and from this one can estimate how market participants feel about the sustainability of trend. This can be called aggression or perceived risk.

    Are the sellers comfortable selling when the trend is only mildly expensive? Or are they waiting until it is obviously higher up in the channel?

    The hard part is that buyers pretend to be sellers and vice versa. Therein lies the game.
     
  5. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Says another subjective TA pretender. But thanks for admitting you aren't up for the challenge and I'm right.
     
  6. I doubt anyone can really code an objective trendline system with programming. Give the same chart to 10 "pro charters", very likely all of them would draw different trendlines on the same chart.
     
  7. Using tradeline to day trade should be one of the fastesr ways to lose money.
     
    taowave likes this.
  8. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Yep, and that's another problem. Although those 10 "market wizards" could also track their trades as I mentioned for the second option. Don't hold your breath on that one, though.
     
  9. comagnum

    comagnum

    Does trendlines work?

    Trend lines are just a tool to help pin points the path of least resistance & can at times help identify areas where price is more inclined to make large breakouts. Its a skill that you build on, you are always learning.

    There are trend lines spanning from years to decades, that are being observed by large hedge funds, banks, pension funds, the Fed, etc..

    upload_2019-8-17_11-45-9.png

    Curved trend lines
    upload_2019-8-17_11-48-54.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Of course they work....on the left side of the chart. Start placing live real time trades for a few years then we'll talk.
     
    #10     Aug 17, 2019